It feels like we've been waiting for this for over a decade. per ESPN.
| Down | Attempts | Yards | Average | Long | Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 99 | 517 | 5.2 | 69 | 2 |
| 2nd | 64 | 265 | 4.1 | 26 | 1 |
| 3rd | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 30 | 0 |
With an expected points model, a player is going to appear more successful -- more valuable -- if he's accumulating production when his team needs him most. In other words, if it's 3rd-and-15 and Peyton Manning gained 13 yards, that's not as valuable as a 3rd-and-2 where Manning gains 3. One results in a punt, and the other results in a first down.
As you can see from the numbers above, Stewart excelled on early downs, which are naturally weighed less than late ones. This is simply due to the fact that the change in expected points on a first-down run will be smaller than on a third-down one.
The other thing to note is that Stewart lost one fumble last year, and that fumble came on his opponent's goal line. That's more than likely a shift of about five expected points, which can dramatically change a running back's average.
That's why the important thing about Stewart's advanced metrics -- to me, at least -- is his Success Rate, which measures the percentage of positive plays a player makes in terms of NEP. It's a binary way of looking at a player -- if he makes a good play, it's deemed a success. If he doesn't, it's not.
Going back to that group of 32 running backs with 150 or more carries, Stewart's Success Rate actually ranked 12th last year, ahead of players like Justin Forsett, Eddie Lacy and Arian Foster. Because of the aforementioned decline on later downs last season, along with his costly fumble, this seems to be the reason to be excited about his 2015 potential, as long as he's healthy.
But don't go drafting him just yet. There's still something important that could cap his ceiling.
A Lack of Upside?
If you draft a player in the first four or five rounds of your draft, you're not just hoping he lives up to that draft slot's potential. You want your player drafted as an RB2 to finish as an RB1. You want all that you can get from your draft selection.
That upside could be a problem for Stewart.
Over the last three years, only five fantasy running backs in PPR leagues have finished in the top 10 at the position while scoring fewer than eight rushing touchdowns. The list of those players is below.
| Player | Year | Touchdowns | Receptions | Rec. Touchdowns | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 2014 | 6 | 102 | 4 | 10 |
| Chris Johnson | 2013 | 6 | 42 | 4 | 10 |
| Reggie Bush | 2013 | 4 | 54 | 3 | 7 |
| CJ Spiller | 2012 | 6 | 43 | 2 | 8 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2012 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 6 |
Naturally, something else had to bolster these players in order for them to finish as top-10 backs. That something is receiving ability -- each of them caught at least 35 passes out of the backfield, scoring at least once.
Why bring this up with Stewart? Because there's a good chance he doesn't come close to eight rushing touchdowns this season. With Cam Newton under center, the Panthers simply haven't scored many rushing touchdowns with their running backs.
| Year | Newton Rush TDs | RB Rush TDs | RB Leader TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 14 | 12 | Williams (7) |
| 2012 | 8 | 13 | Tolbert (7) |
| 2013 | 6 | 8 | Tolbert (5) |
| 2014 | 5 | 5 | Stewart (3) |
No back over the last four years has hit the eight touchdown mark in Carolina. And while things are a little more defined in this year's backfield, the team still has two goal line weapons in Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert to compete for those rushes.
Not only that, but with Cam Newton quarterbacking, the Panthers have been the third run-heaviest team in the NFL (spans the last four years combined) in the red zone. While that may appear as an opportunity, what it really shows us is that there's not much room for growth for a running back in that system. What we've seen might be what we get.
So if Stewart doesn't hit the eight rushing touchdown mark, he would need to make up for the difference -- in order to be a top-notch fantasy running back -- through the air. Maybe that's possible -- in 2011, Cam Newton's first season, Stewart caught 47 passes out of the backfield, scoring once. He's barely hit that total over his last three seasons combined though (28 games), and since that year, no Carolina running back has hit the 40 target mark.
2015 Outlook
For Stewart to become a top-10 fantasy running back, it may be difficult. But that doesn't mean he won't be a worthwhile fantasy selection.
As long as Stewart is healthy, his floor appears to be pretty high -- he'd be a virtual lock to hit the 200-carry mark in what was an average NFL offense last year. Ideally, though, running back-heavy fantasy teams should look for him to be their RB3 rather than RB2, just to factor in the injury risk and lack of touchdown upside.