Few NFL quarterbacks have experienced such an intense rise and fall in performance -- and perception -- than what the front office has decided to pick up the fifth-year option on Griffin’s rookie contract, which will pay him in excess of $16 million in 2016.

For a quarterback who has struggled with inconsistency and injuries over his first three seasons, it is fair to question the logic behind the contract extension. Going even further, it’s fair to question whether or not Griffin will (or should) even be the starter in 2015.

Let’s see if we can untangle this situation and uncover both the fantasy football and real-life football ramifications.

A Downward Trajectory

Here at numberFire, we like to use our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric to help readers visualize just how effective each player was while on the field. It assigns a numeric value to each play, and by doing so, shows us the relative efficiency of a given player. NEP indicates how many points above or below expectation level a player has added to or subtracted from his team’s expected point total.

To check get a more detailed description of our metrics, Fantasy Football Calculator. Given the inconsistency he has exhibited over the past two seasons, it tough to argue against his current average draft position.

But the fact that he is basically free in fantasy drafts currently could provide an excellent opportunity for those who still believe there’s a chance he realizes the potential we thought we saw back in 2012.

Griffin will be the Week 1 starter -- that we can be almost sure of. Will he play his way out of that spot? The Redskins have wagered millions of dollars that he won’t.