The Patriots offense has been a heavily discussed topic this offseason: average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com, as the 38th wide receiver off the board. People may be fearing regression, clinging to the fact that he didn’t exactly inspire confidence with his numbers in Carolina, or may simply be forgetting about LaFell in a stacked offense.
Whatever the case may be, LaFell is poised for another big year, and is a great value pick right now.
LaFell's Role in the Offense
LaFell didn't earn a starting job in the Patriots' offense until Week 3 and wasn't on the field for more than 57% of the teams' snaps until Week 4, when he caught 6 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown. From this week on through the Super Bowl, LaFell was on the field for 85% or more of the teams' offensive snaps for all but one week, and saw 20.1% of the offense's targets.
Even if we remove Weeks 16 and 17 (Julian Edelman missed Week 16 and both Gronkowski and Edelman missed Week 17), LaFell's target share in this span was 18.8%.
The new additions to the Patriots' offense this offseason aren't likely to see a lot of targets and cut into anyone else's either. The most notable signings have been former Dolphins wideout ProFootballFocus).
| Fantasy Points | Standard | PPR | Per Snap (Std) | Per Snap (PPR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 129.5 | 221.5 | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| Brandon LaFell | 138.1 | 212.1 | 0.16 | 0.24 |
LaFell also has room to improve on these 2014 numbers. His efficiency in 2014 was actually a step back from what is was in Carolina, where he posted a Reception NEP per target of 0.72 over the course of his four seasons. 2014 was his second-worst year in that category. In contrast to this, Edelman has a career Reception NEP per target of 0.56, and his 2014 number was the highest of his career.
Though Edelman's efficiency is accompanied by more targets and he is still the clear cut number-one in New England, the numbers are far closer than the four-round difference in their ADP would suggest.
It's not likely LaFell sees fewer targets in 2015 than he did last year, and with what he did in a worse offense in Carolina, his 2014 efficiency numbers seem much closer to his floor than his ceiling.
Adding to his low-end WR2 finish last season, I find it hard to wrap my head around the fact that he's going off the board as a WR4 right now. LaFell is poised for another solid year, and he's a great value in fantasy football right now.