I promise this isn't some scorned article from a disdainful 2014 fantasy owner of MyFantasyLeague.com and FantasyFootballCalculator.com, the 5' 10" wide receiver is filling out the back end of the WR1 tier.

Entering the 2015 season, T.Y. Hilton faces several conundrums that could hold him back from replicating his 2014 fantasy finish. Hilton faces competition from a crowded offense suddenly overflowing with talented skill-players, possesses serious red zone concerns, and has weekly inconsistencies that should cause fantasy owners to re-evaluate where they have Hilton on their draft boards for 2015.

Target Distribution in a Crowded Offense

Earlier this month numberFire's Scott Barrett took a look at the potential target split for the 2015 Colts. He found some rather interesting statistics on the usage of wide receivers within the Colts offense, particularly among the distribution of targets among them.

Observing a decrease over the past three years in targets directed towards the wide receivers -- 72% in 2012, 61% in 2013, 57% in 2014 -- is this trend likely to continue entering 2015?

Watching an aging drafted Phillip Dorsett in the first round -- to help alleviate any concerns for their star quarterback.

Indianapolis has also provided Luck with two receiving tight ends and several running backs capable of becoming outlet receivers. This mix of veterans and unproven youth, combined with Hilton and second-year receiver analyzing the Colts, he pointed out over the past three years that despite the Colts targeting their wide receivers on 53.9% of their red zone targets, the wideouts have only been able to come up with 17.6% of the team's red zone scores.

Indianapolis hopes to alleviate these concerns by adding the veteran Johnson to the wide receiver corps. Hilton will still see some red zone targets, but Andre Johnson could be in a for a career year seeing the lion's share of them.

The Colts also hope that the signing of Johnson can help bring some consistency to a plagued team with a dire need for it.

Inconsistency in Indy

Out of all the determining factors for why you should or should not take Hilton, his inconsistency from a week-to-week perspective is the biggest flaw to his game.

Bear with me with this table, but seeing it in this context helps illustrate my point best.

Hilton had about as inconsistent of a year as they come.

It didn't matter if he was facing top passing defenses or not. It was hard to predict when Hilton would break out in any given week. In Week 6, Hilton put up 37.3 points against the Texans, but in their rematch he ended up accumulating just 9.0 points.

When facing bottom of the barrel defenses such as Tennessee and Washington, Hilton had only run-of-the-mill WR2 outings.

Whether gauging by pace of game play or pass defense ranking, it was a weekly circus act predicting if this was the game Hilton would go off.

19 different wide receivers had at least as many top-12 (WR1) weeks than T.Y.'s four appearances. Expecting a high return on Hilton from week to week is a foolish endeavor, as he easily has the highest variance among the top receivers being drafted this year.

Picking up one of the few stud running backs that are not in a committee would be a much more valuable use of your draft equity in the third round. For those really gung-ho about getting a piece of the Colts' offense, waiting another round and selecting Andre Johnson in the late fourth would be a better option.

Johnson should see a similar volume to Hilton but will be more of a possession type player with more high-percentage throws going in his direction. Topping that off with the potential for more touchdowns, Johnson is a much more safe, less volatile play than the explosive Hilton.

Hilton faces a much more crowded depth chart entering his fourth year, and with his inconsistent manner in which he plays and lack of red zone opportunities, there are much better plays when Hilton's name crawls up to the top of your queue.