I spend a lot of time rifling through spreadsheets.
Sometimes the flood of numbers is overwhelming, especially after repeatedly glancing back over to the name column to see whose metrics belong to whom. Sometimes I mistake certain rows for the wrong player, and that can be a funny thing.
But that also led me to an idea: to remove names entirely from the numbers. That led me to do getting drafted as a top-30 receiver. The other is going outside the top 80 at the position.
That makes him the type of pick that could help you win a league, even if it's übercompetitive.
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I'm talking, of course, about Player Profiler. Even though Brown doesn't project as an elite touchdown scorer, which is bad for Bailey, there are certainly exceptions to the rule -- like Brown proved in 2014.
St. Louis Isn't Pittsburgh
Of course, the Steelers offense was much more lethal than the Rams' last year. According to our schedule-adjusted NEP per play data, the Steelers had the fifth best offense in all of football. St. Louis ranked just 27th.
We can point out many reasons why, but one thing is certain: the quarterbacks were bad.
Among the 37 quarterbacks who attempted at least 200 drop backs last year, Shaun Hill (247 drop backs) ranked 29th in Passing NEP (3.00). Austin Davis (314 drop backs) ranked 33rd (-12.28).
Their per-drop back ranks were the same, as Hill mustered just 0.01 points above expectation with his drop backs. Davis lost 0.04 points per drop back, relative to expectation level.
Now, the team will be relying on Nick Foles, who ranked 26th in Passing NEP and 22nd in Passing NEP per drop back (0.05).
That's not great, but even with those quarterbacks last year, Bailey made the most of his 46 targets. And even though he may resemble Tavon Austin physically, their results on nearly identical usage numbers were vastly different.
| Player | Rec | Rec NEP | Tar | Target NEP | Rec NEP/Tar | Catch Rate | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavon Austin | 32 | 17.08 | 45 | -0.41 | 0.38 | 71.11% | 75.00% |
| Stedman Bailey | 30 | 42.70 | 46 | 29.28 | 0.93 | 65.22% | 96.67% |
Austin caught a higher percentage of his targets but didn't move the sticks forward nearly as often, as evidenced by his Success Rate (the percentage of plays that add positively to a team's NEP). In fact, Austin's 75.00% mark ranked just 87th among the 96 receivers who saw at least 45 targets last year.
Bailey's was third behind Calvin Johnson (98.59%) and Terrance Williams (97.30%).
Bailey isn't a big name -- and certainly not a big body -- but he quietly put forth some of the most impressive analytics among receivers last year, albeit with a small sample of just 46 targets and 30 catches.
His touchdowns may not increase, and he might get buried on the depth chart, but if he is given a chance to play, then it's clear that he has the potential to be a big-time difference maker on an offense that certainly needs one.