I don't need to tell you much about seventh overall in best-ball formats as the second wide receiver. Even in standard-scoring formats, he's a tail-end first-rounder.

We just assume that he's going to be a no-brainer WR1 for fantasy football purposes. I agree with that if we're talking the top-12.

But to consider taking him as the first receiver? That dog won't hung, monsignor.

Recapping the Rookie Year

If you were to scour Pro-Football-Reference's Season Finder (don't worry, I did it for you), you would find out that the list of rookie receivers who posted at least 90 receptions, 1,300 yards, and 12 touchdowns in the NFL is short. How short? Its name is Odell Beckham. Really, that's it. It's only been done 31 times ever by players of any experience in the league.

And you may have known that already, but I can't really overstate how good he was.

Even when looking at his season through our never fully healed even during the incredible rookie season.

He has already tweaked his other hamstring this offseason and is missing OTAs. Of course, Beckham says he could play a game with his hamstring like it is now, but I can't gloss over this injury like Beckham is doing.

Not with my first-round pick.

Elite But Not Alone

So here's the thing. I'm fully willing to admit that I think Beckham is the real deal. I think that, if healthy, he could easily be the top fantasy football receiver. It's not that I don't think he can repeat, but I don't know if banking on it is the right decision.

Here's why.

I did a study on fantasy football consistency earlier in the offseason, and Beckham 68% of the time, or 11 games a year. That ceiling was just one point higher than Demaryius Thomas', who did have a lower floor (4.80 points).

Three more players in addition to Thomas owned realistic ceilings better than 21 points, and the gap didn't really change in PPR leagues. Beckham's PPR realistic ceiling was 34.82 points, 2.39 points better than Thomas' ceiling. Again, three more players had ceilings of at least 30.79 points.

In a fury of nearly unmatched production in NFL history, Beckham's upside was just a few points above other elite receivers.

Again, I'm fully aware that Beckham has the chance to be the best receiver in fantasy football -- he was last year by many measures -- but unless he's the next Terrell Owens, Jerry Rice, or Marvin Harrison, he's likely going to take a step back, and lose the (relatively narrow) edge he owned over other receivers last year.

Worth the Risk?

Our projections anticipate a 99-catch, 1,374-yard, 9-touchdown season for Beckham, placing him seventh at the wide receiver position in standard scoring leagues. Can he best that? Yes, he nearly did that last year in 12 games.

But to think that I have to pass up Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, and Calvin Johnson to draft Beckham, to hope that his hamstrings really aren't an issue, and to hope that he can continue playing at a basically unrepeatable pace doesn't add up to me.

Even if Beckham repeats his fantasy output, he's two PPR points per game better than receivers not named Antonio Brown. And for him to do that, he has to play at a clip that the NFL doesn't see very often.

If he slips to the tail end of the second round (he won't) and the other top-tier wide receivers are gone, then count me in for the upside. But I can't get on board with passing up safer, more proven, healthier wide receivers with practically the same amount of tangible fantasy football upside and less hype.