In 10 NFL seasons, 23 30-year-old 1,000-yard rushers, 12 31-year-old 1,000-yard rushers, and then just 6 32-year-old 1,000-yard rushers. In case you're a dynasty owner looking at Gore, there have been only three 1,000-yard rushers over the age of 32 (although two of them did it twice).

Of the 11 (we're excluding Gore here) 31-year-old 1,000 yard rushers, only three of these running backs repeated the next year. That would mean Frank Gore has only a 3/11 (27%) chance of repeating this year, right? Well, of those 11 backs, two retired. So really, maybe it's a 33% chance. And then out of those other six, only two played more than 13 games. So maybe if Gore, who hasn't missed a game since 2010, can stay healthy, he has a 3/5 (60%) chance. And actually, one of these two running backs (Thomas Jones) still managed 896 yards his age-32 season.

"envision him as a workhorse and every-down back".

While his age may indeed bring about a higher injury risk or the Colts might have to limit his carries due to the fear of early wear and tear, it's not yet clear if that is already built into his ADP where he's currently being drafted in the mid-third round, or RB14.

From Shaky Town to the Crossroads

The narrative running counter to the "a 32-year-old running back is basically dead" narrative is that the Colts running game is a plug-and-play situation similar to what Denver has been since the every Colts running back with at least 40 rushing attempts in a year has had a yards per carry average of at least 4.50. Last year, Ahmad Bradshaw had a 4.72 yards per carry average, while Herron's was 4.50. In 2013, Bradshaw's was 4.54 and Donald Brown's was 5.26 (the next year with San Diego it was 2.62).

In 2013 with the Colts, Donald Brown had 8 touchdowns on just 129 total touches. Last season, Ahmad Bradshaw finished eighth among all running backs in fantasy PPR points per game with 15.9 while splitting time with Trent Richardson (who, despite being bad at football, still managed to put up 10.3 points per contest in his first eight games).

From Week 12 until the end of the regular season, Dan Herron averaged 11.1 points per game. In the playoffs, when Indy realized it was finally time to stop wasting snaps on Richardson, Herron averaged 20.6 points while splitting time with made a compelling case last year looking at why we should be drafting running backs in highly-efficient passing offenses, if you want more evidence.

Last season, the Colts ranked as our seventh most efficient offense by Passing where I break down the potential target split for the entire Colts team, I projected a modest 66 targets for Gore.

Gore has a 68% career catch rate on 503 targets, which, for instance, was the same catch rate last year as article that looks into the impact certain defensive packages have on a running back’s yards per carry average might shed some light on our own efficiency metrics. By looking at the effect of the amount of defenders stacked at the line of scrimmage, we can better put a running back's averages into perspective.

For instance, it's easier to rush for a 4.3 yards per carry against four defenders in the box than it is against seven. Over the last three years, Gore has been at a tremendous disadvantage compared to every other running back in league, as in each of the last three years he has led the league in the number of carries against eight-plus defenders in the box. Last year he had 76 such rushes, while the second closest runner was Demarco Murray who had only 58 -- even though Murray had 137 more total carries.

A total of 81% of Gore's carries last year were against base defenses. To put that in perspective, Dan Herron only ran against a base defense 45% of the time last season. As a team, the 49ers had the third most rushes versus base defenses, while Colts running backs saw the 14th fewest. That was even worse for Gore in 2013, when a ridiculous 95% of his carries came against four or fewer defensive backs (the next closest rusher was Darren McFadden with only 86%).

Despite his age, NFL defenses were still paying a much greater deal of respect to Gore over the past two years, and he still held up more than adequately. Next year, while the offensive line might not be as strong, he’ll more than make up for it by facing against less defenders in the box in a much easier division and for a much more highly productive offense.

The Price Is Right

Last season, Gore finished as the 21st overall fantasy running back in PPR leagues. Over the final two weeks of last season, he rushed for a combined 302 yards. Outside of being seven months older today than he was then, there doesn’t seem to much to dislike about Gore’s fantasy potential this year. Based on everything we’ve looked at in comparing the two offenses and Gore’s lack of a declination, I’m compelled to draft him at or above his current average draft position. And our projections think he's priced right, too.