Breathe in and breathe out. It's officially football season.
Yes, training camps are starting -- slowly but surely -- which means we're inching closer to Thursday, September 10th -- the 2015 regular season opener.
With a new season comes new-found hope for 31 NFL fanbases searching for Super Bowl glory. This fact is exponentially true in the AFC West, because this most westerly division owns the longest Super Bowl victory drought in all of the NFL, as the Broncos were the last AFC West team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy back in 1998.
Can this streak be reversed in 2015?
4. Oakland Raiders
Offense:
Grading rookie quarterback Football Outsiders.
Oakland's offense ranked 30th in schedule-adjusted NEP last year -- hopefully Derek Carr can take the next step forward with these offensive improvements. A lot is resting on his shoulders, and he'll certainly have more weapons at his disposal this year.
Defense:
Oakland's defense wasn't abysmal last year, but they weren't a particularly good unit last year either. They were the 20th-best group according to our Adjusted Defensive NEP metric, ranking 25th and 14th in defending the pass and run, respectively.
Raiders' general manager Reggie McKenzie was cognizant of this fact, so he added nose tackle Melvin Gordon to star in a position the Bolts have longed for consistency since the days of LaDainian Tomlinson. Gordon had a prolific career at Wisconsin, averaging 7.5 yards per carry while accounting for 47.7% of his team's yardage and touchdowns in college. We'll see if Gordon can master pass-blocking early and improve his receiving ability, but he assumes to be an upgrade over Ryan Mathews and Branden Oliver.
San Diego loves to throw when they get in close. In fact, over the past two years, no team has thrown more (63.9% of the time) inside of the 5-yard line than the Chargers. Now that Philip Rivers is without his go-to redzone man, Antonio Gates, for the first four games thanks to a suspension, the Chargers will lean on a stable of pass-catchers headlined by third-year receiver Keenan Allen, veterans Steve Johnson and Malcom Floyd, and tight end Ladarius Green.
Defense:
While the Chargers offense carried the team in 2014, their defense lagged behind finishing 22nd just above Dallas in schedule-adjusted Defensive NEP.
San Diego generated just 26 sacks last year, finishing 29th in the entire league, which certainly must improve in 2015. The Bolts desperately need Melvin Ingram to string together some healthy games and be more consistent this year if their pass rush is going to improve, even incrementally.
The most solid point of the Chargers defense is their secondary. Safety Eric Weddle and cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett are returning, and they've added former-Saint, Patrick Robinson. Still, if the Chargers are going to threaten the Broncos, they have got to manage to muster a much better defensive product in 2015.
Projected Record: 8.0-8.0
Division Probability: 20.0%
Playoff Probability: 32.5%
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Offense:
was playing with a torn right quadricep that he injured in mid-December. Still, Manning is going to have to reinvent himself one last time.
Luckily, he'll have a litany of toys at his disposal.
Both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders posted 100-plus receptions and 1,400-plus yards all of the while topping it off with top-six numbers in terms of Reception NEP (Thomas was third and Sanders was sixth) last year. Despite Julius Thomas' free agency departure, the Broncos still have a great pass-catching core and should find tight end production via veteran Owen Daniels and Virgil Green.
Also helping the Broncos cause will be running back C.J. Anderson, who broke out onto the scene last year after injuries from both Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman. Among the 43 backs with 100 or more carries on the season, Anderson boasted the sixth best Success Rate (46.93%), the second-best Rushing NEP per attempt (0.10) and averaged a studly 4.7 yards per carry on his 179 attempts. His presence will be a major boon to Manning and Denver's offense as they have been searching for foundational running back play since 2013.
Defense:
On paper, Denver's defense looks like one of the best three units in the entire league.
Last year, the Broncos finished 7th and 10th, respectively, in schedule-adjusted pass and rush Defensive NEP, and finished ninth in sacks (41) and fourth in passes deflected (90). Loaded with talent like Von Miller and Chris Harris, the Broncos defense looks like a stout group and will get one of the league's best defensive minds in Wade Phillips to coordinate the unit.
Projected Record: 9.7-6.3
Division Probability: 52.2%
Playoff Probability: 65.7%
West Coast Bias
The AFC West tilts heavily towards the Denver Broncos, who have won the division four years in a row. Denver has no shortage of offensive and defensive talent, but it could take the players some time to adapt to the new coaching staff.
However, the division is more loaded top-to-bottom than ever. Oakland has, what appears on paper, to be a much improved offense with the additions of Crabtree and Cooper, and has added useful defensive pieces to plug the leaky run stopping. San Diego drafted an explosive running back in Melvin Gordon that should take some of the pressure off Philip Rivers. Furthermore, a healthy Brandon Flowers and Jason Verett should help improve a mediocre defense.
The biggest threat will continue to be from Kansas City, who bring back all the important pieces of their top defensive unit and have a not-spectacular, but steady quarterback in Alex Smith, a superstar running back in Jamaal Charles and a upgraded receiving core with Jeremy Maclin entering the fray.
Yet, when a team is led by Peyton Manning, you expect them to win the division every year. We expect this year will be no different.