may require surgery to repair it, leaving his opening-day status in jeopardy. Foster was projected to be the second-best fantasy football rusher, according to want to run the football. A lot.
Given that the alternative is giving more control to whichever quarterback "wins" the competition between Houston depth chart currently, so that's a logical progression. Last year, Grimes ran the ball 39 times for the Texans. That was his largest sample size to date in his three seasons. He secured a Rushing NEP of -3.08. That ranked 19th among the 35 backs to see between 25 and 75 carries. On a per-carry basis (-0.09), he ranked 21st.
Grimes did maintain a Rushing Success Rate of 41.03%, but that ranked just 17th among the small-sample players. Further, Grimes caught just six passes, so we can't put much stock into his reception metrics.
The most intriguing name so far is Chris Polk, who played with the Philadelphia Eagles for the past two seasons. In 2013, Polk secured a 7.89 Rushing NEP on 11 carries, or 0.72 points per carry. That's absurdly unsustainable, but it at least showed a glimpse of breakout potential.
That did not come to fruition last year, though there are positives in his 46-carry sample from 2014. Polk managed a Rushing NEP of 1.61 on those carries, or 0.04 points above expectation with each tote. That cumulative and per-carry score ranked ninth among the 35 backs with between 25 and 75 carries. Perhaps the best sign was his Success Rate of 50.00%.
Now, MockDraftable.com. To make matters worse, His top comparison, according to PlayerProfiler.com is Minnesota Vikings running back Matt Asiata.
The scary part is that we probably can't rule out Hilliard as a viable candidate, given how unimpressive the rest of the backs have been -- aside from Polk. Polk, however, is already dealing with a hamstring issue. Hamstring issues limited him during last season's training camp with the Eagles, and banking on a healthy season from Polk might not be a safe bet.
A Verdict of Sorts
It appears as though Alfred Blue will see the majority of the boost if Foster does miss time, even though he was very, very inefficient last season in his time on the field. Given the lack of track record and appeal for Grimes, the injury concerns for Polk, and the unimpressive athleticism of Hilliard, Blue is the go-to man by default, not necessarily by pedigree.
Hopefully more information comes out on Foster prior to fantasy draft season, and hopefully he's able to play a healthy 16-game season. In the meantime, though, all we can really do is see how the situation plays out and hope that Blue offers some semblance of efficiency in 2014 because he's likely going to be the primary beneficiary.
It's not a pretty situation, and without the threat of Arian Foster or a viable passing game, whichever back does end up with the starting gig might have trouble giving your fantasy team a boost.