Most everyone has heard the old fable of the “Tortoise and the Hare”, by Aesop, but how many times have you actually considered which side you’d be rooting for if you were there? Would you be wearing foam bunny ears and snacking on fried carrot sticks as you prepped for the hare’s elite athletic ability to dazzle you? Or would you be wearing a turtle shell over your face – Browns fans-style – and cringe as your beloved tortoise got ready to put his elite endurance to the test?

I’m Team Tortoise all the way.

This is essentially your decision on fantasy football draft day at the running back position: do you live for the thrill of electrifying agility in your players, who are racking up insane yards per attempt, or do you take the slow-and-steady plodders with lower yards per attempt, but a high number of carries?

Thus, we run out our contestants once again, centuries later: should we be aiming for upside in athleticism or upside in usage? Which of these qualities makes for a better fantasy running back?

No Napping on the Job

This is one of the biggest questions in fantasy football: how do you find a quality running back? With the emphasis going away from single-back running games, it has become more and more crucial to find value at the running back position. Many people find it necessary to grab the elite runners at the top of the draft, investing in the Marshawn Lynch and Eddie Lacy-esque players of the world. Others prefer to avoid the position until the middle rounds, banking on the theory that there is a certain level of uncertainty across the position, due to injury, workload concerns, and the shortened longevity of the position.

Our official position at numberFire is that you should try to capitalize on the most proficient running backs in the league, those elite backs, and then be wary of most of the rest. As we’ve shown, those DeMarco Murray – now in a potential timeshare in Philadelphia – not to mention someone like Giovani Bernard. Unless they have an absolutely exceptional year in terms of value, they simply cannot break out of a middling role in the fantasy landscape without an increased workload. For reference, Spiller’s insane 2012 showing is one of two sub-250 touch seasons in the top-30 fantasy seasons for a runner over the past three years. The other hyper-efficient one: Jamaal Charles’ 2014.

Slow and Steady Wins the Race

What does this mean for us fantasy owners? All of the evidence we have, from probability of finishing position, to Le'Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, and Matt Forte crossed that mark. This year, I’d expect at least two of those to miss the 300-touch line.

It's interesting to note, however, that for lower fantasy point running backs, there is almost no correlation to Total NEP. Backs with fewer than 150 fantasy points in a season the last three years had just a 0.24 correlation with Total NEP, but a 0.84 and 0.85 correlation to touches and opportunities. This means that for your end-of-the-roster players, don’t worry about yards-per-carry, or any sort of value statistic: you want pure opportunity to stash. Grab only the players with the most playing time upside.

For higher-fantasy point players – those with 150 fantasy points or more – touches and opportunities still reign supreme, with 0.76 and 0.78 correlations respectively. They do, however, have a 0.66 correlation to Total NEP. This means that you should factor in value and offensive system tiebreakers when considering your frontline, top-notch running backs.

Knowledge like this could make all the difference between a fairytale ending and the thorny sting of defeat.