Every Thursday afternoon and Sunday morning, Zach Warren will be looking at some of the guys being started in some ESPN leagues, but not all. Not sure what to do, even after heading over to the numberFire questions board? Check it out!
You never quite know with fantasy football. 95.8% of fantasy owners started Kevin Ogletree, the new Sir Regent of Dallas, hailing from the all-mighty house of 25 career catches in three seasons entering last night. Naturally, he goes off for what might end up being a fantasy receiver-leading 23 points in standard leagues. If you were one of the 1.1% who started Ogletree, please take me to Vegas. If you're one of the rest of us who didn't see it coming (or like me, simply guessed the wrong Cowboys receiver to get targets), don't beat yourself up over it.
Other than Sir Ogletree, numberFire projections had an accurate game last night. rest of the calls accurately predicted what was to come in this game.
So with one down, want some more Fire Knowledge coming at you? There are a few guys right on the border between must-start and must-sit, those confusing middle players who could go either way. Most of them are only confusing, however, until you take a closer look at the stats. Here's what numberFire projects some of these guys to do this weekend as you look to start your own season off on the right foot.
Thursday Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 1
#11 Ranked RB)
Percent Started: 45.9%
Verdict: Start Him
I'm not a huge fan of Williams this season; I'm on the record as saying he won't be as good as you might think. However, if there was ever a game to start him on your fantasy team, this would be the one. banged up going into week 1, meaning that Williams may only be sharing his carries with views on the economy - dead last in the league with 2,497 yards given up on the ground. This may be Williams's one and only chance to shine.
#27 Ranked RB)
Percent Started: 65.7%
Verdict: Sit Him
There are still people thinking about this? Yeesh. Let me lay it out plain: Maurice Jones-Drew is a top flight back, but he's only truly worth the start if he gets a high number of carries. In 2011, 34.99% of his rushes were considered successful, meaning that he increased the Jaguars' chance of scoring on 120 of his 343 times rushing the ball last season. That 34.99% is pretty good, but it's not "I can come in at any time and you must FEAR ME" good. In addition, his Net Expected Points (NEP) per play value sat a bit lower than fantasy owners would have liked for a top-tier back. At -0.07 NEP per play in 2011 and -0.05 in 2010, the Jaguars on average lost expected points every time he ran the ball. If MJD was the starter this week, this would easily be forgiven and he's a must play by virtue of quantity over quality. But he's not. #10 Ranked WR)
Percent Started: 55.2%
Verdict: Start Him
For the final four players on this start/sit, let's take a look at two sets of teammates. First off, you have a pair of targets for noted football fairy and great quarterback play some ball. Decker and Manning have already established a connection; Decker caught eight passes for 101 yards and two TDs from Manning in limited time this preseason. And as I noted a couple of days ago, he already led the Broncos in targets as a sophomore and seems comfortable within their offensive system. If you add more targets to the fire, Decker could easily break out against the steadily aging Steelers secondary in week 1.
#25 Ranked TE)
Percent Started: 42.0%
Verdict: Sit Him
Part of me wants to recommend starting Tamme this week, just because there are 42% of people starting him, and that is the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything after all. But then the other part of me slapped the first part upside the head wondering what he was thinking. While Tamme is a welcome new addition for Manning, John Fox's Broncos gameplan simply did not favor the tight end last year. The leading pass catcher at the position was #39 Ranked WR)
Percent Started: 28.2%
Verdict: Sit Him
I have a knack for calling him Pierre "Stone Hands" Garcon around these parts, a nickname originated from our own Keith Goldner. However, it's for a good reason: the man just can't seem to catch the ball. In three pro seasons with a significant number of targets, Garcon has never hit the league average of a roughly 60% catch rate; he has really never even come close. His best year was in 2010, when he hit a 57.14% rate with Peyton Manning. Otherwise, he caught an abysmal 52.24% of his targets last season and 50.54% of his targets in 2009. That is just simply not good. The New Orleans Saints may have given up the third-most passing yards in the league last year, but I don't trust Garcon to take advantage as he tries to move into a new #1 receiver role with the Redskins. Don't let the allure of an #7 Ranked TE)
Percent Started: 68.1%
Verdict: Start Him
The allure of a RGIII tight end, however? I'm on board! Especially in a week where some of the normal lower-end TE starters are seeing tough match-ups (like #7 TE in our projections this week. While everybody in Washington becomes misty-eyed over one tight end's retirement, because really this is a franchise that hasn't had much else to get misty-eyed about, Davis has a chance to break out as the newest, baddest tight end in the nation's capital.