For those unfamiliar with daily fantasy sports (DFS), player selection can be at once exhilarating and incredibly frustrating at the same time.
Tournament play, where typically less than 20% of the field walks away with earnings, requires more of a mental chess match. If a player is likely to be highly owned, you may want to fade him for a player you think will achieve similar production but be lower owned.
But in cash games it’s simply more advisable to go with safer bets when you only have to beat 50% of the field, so the game theory required in tournament play isn’t really necessary.
Therefore, in cash games, a good strategy for narrowing down your available list of players is to begin by targeting the weakest defenses against the run and pass and not worry about ownership percentages nearly as much.
Our primary metric for analyzing player or team performance, Net Expected Points (NEP) can help identify those positive matchups. In short, NEP quantifies the performance of a player or team above-or-below expectation based on down-and-distance data. Check out our Pro Football Focus ranked as the sixth best corner in the league in 2014.
Other teams to consider: Bears, Steelers, Raiders