In catching up on The West Wing recently, now that my first brutal month of classes is out of the way, I watched an episode entitled “Epper Si Muove”. In this episode, First Lady Abbey Bartlet is trying to resume practicing medicine after voluntarily ending her practice due to a scandal. White House Press Secretary C.J. Cregg suggests, “You need to go right to the people with this. Get outside of the cynical Washington echo chamber.” So, of course, C.J. arranges for the First Lady to appear in a medical episode of Sesame Street, and it’s a huge heartwarming moment that repairs her image to the public.

If only P.R. was that easy in real life.

Another public figure we know very well is trapped in the “cynical Washington echo chamber” right now, and that’s Washington running back Alfred Morris. Morris is a shockingly polarizing figure in NFL analysis and fantasy football right now, as there has been a coup of sorts in the nation’s capital. Rookie Matt Jones and second-year passing-down back Chris Thompson have really eaten into Morris’s previously locked-down bell cow position.

Has there been a changing of the guard in the nation’s backfield? Is the Alfred Morris era in Washington over?

18th and Potomac

For reference, 18th and Potomac in Washington, D.C. is in the southeast part of the city just a block away from the jail. It’s an intersection with no stoplight, and is far out of the way of the important places in the city, like the White House, Capitol Hill, and so on.

That’s about where Alfred Morris sits in the favor of his coaching staff and the hearts of fantasy owners right now.

Just one year after rushing for 1,074 yards and 8 touchdowns, Morris finds himself in full-blown committee, and the exits polls believe it’s unlikely this bill is going to see Capitol Hill again. What precipitated this fall from grace so quickly? Is this really Morris’s true talent we’re seeing right now, or will he bounce back?

Before we can answer those questions, we have to understand just what kind of trajectory his career has been up until this point. For that, we will look at his box score production (yardage and scores), but also his analytics production in terms of numberFire’s Net Expected Points (NEP) metric. NEP helps us take the numbers we get from the box score and assign them contextual value so they relate even closer to the game on the field. By adding down-and-distance value, we can see just how much each play and each team as a whole influence the outcome of games. For more info on NEP, check out our Robert Griffin III as the starting quarterback means defenses don't have to fear the read-option, which is where Morris thrived. Now, however, there is more talent in the Washington backfield that will ensure he doesn’t make it to that production.

Our own Aaron Watson profiled Matt Jones after he was selected in the 2015 NFL Draft, and recommended, “While Jones will likely play the Roy Helu passing downs role in 2015, his versatility and youth could earn him a starting role in 2016.” Despite Jones’ current 52nd rank among running backs in per-play Rushing NEP, he ranks 16th in per-play Reception NEP, and is more versatile as a lead than Morris. Aaron also notes in his piece that Morris was waiting on an extension to his rookie deal, which expires after 2015; he’s still waiting, which could make him expendable for Washington if he continues to struggle.

Now, Aaron was partially right in that he called Jones a “powerful, big running back who can run and explode through contact and move the chains,” but he pegged him for the Helu role for 2015. That role has been seized by Thompson, and he’s wrangled that to a 10th-place standing in raw Reception NEP among backs with at least 25 opportunities (rushes plus targets), as well as a 15th-place standing in per-target Reception NEP.

That said, the offices in Washington seem to be filled, and it appears Morris is in a lame-duck period until his term expires, despite out-touching Jones and Thompson 78 to 58 to 31 for this year. Jones appears to be the face of the backfield for the future, and his running mate Thompson is secure in his role as the passing-down and catch-up back.

It’s a shame to see him fall from grace, but perhaps Morris can give Sesame Street a call. They’ll definitely give him another chance to get outside the Washington echo chamber, and maybe carry on his career in 2016.