We can talk all day about whether or not Aaron Rodgers was actually facemasked on Thursday night, and if that final play -- the Hail Mary that silenced a Detroit crowd -- should've even happened. I'm sure some of you have opinions on how mediocre NFL referees are, while others would agree with me when I say it's nearly impossible to call that play correctly in real time.
Opinions don't really matter here, though. We want numbers. We want facts.
So exactly how did that Rodgers-to-Rodgers play actually impact the NFC playoff picture?
Well, the Packers' win essentially pushed the Lions out of the playoff picture. With the loss, Detroit now has a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs. Had they won the contest, their chances were still slim, but they would've had 4.48% odds, per our metrics.
The win for Green Bay, meanwhile, was pretty huge. With the victory, only the Cardinals and Panthers have better odds than Green Bay's 92.08% of making the playoffs. The Vikings are still favored to win the division (53.2% versus 46.64%), but it's looking like the Packers will be dancing in January.
Had the prayer not worked out for Green Bay on Thursday, then we're looking at a completely different playoff picture. They would've only had 28.74% odds of winning the division, and their playoff chances would have dropped to 66.5%. That's a huge change from the 92.08% chance they have now.
Teams fighting for a wild card spot naturally took a hit from the result. Atlanta's odds dropped by 4.34%, Tampa Bay's by 4.86%, and Seattle's by 6.90%.
As it stands, our projections see the Packers taking the top wild card spot in the NFC, while Seattle is the six seed. And although that would've been the case even with a Green Bay loss on Thursday, the Packers are still in a far better spot than they would've been without the historic deep ball.