Every year at the start of the NFL season, we like to think that our favorite team has the same odds of winning it all as any other team in the league. After all, with no record of which to speak, anything is possible, right?
As I'm sure all the Cleveland Browns fans in the house will admit, that's just not the case. Yeah, your team could make a run, but are the odds of that as likely as seeing the New England Patriots claim another ring? I'm sure it's close, Cleveland, but no cigar.
The same concept applies to the playoffs. The sample size here is smaller, so the odds are certainly jacked up, but they're far from being evenly distributed. Some teams are forced to hit the road while others have the luxury of sitting at home this weekend. That's going to distort things a bit.
Thankfully, numberFire's algorithms allow us to get a little sneak peek at which teams have higher odds than their peers as the playoffs get set to begin. This will factor in home field advantage, potential matchups, and everything else to spit out realistic odds for each team still in contention.
The table below shows how things shake out as of right now.
| Rank | Team | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona Cardinals | 26.7% |
| 2 | Carolina Panthers | 19.4% |
| 3 | New England Patriots | 13.6% |
| 4 | Denver Broncos | 9.2% |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 7.5% |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.4% |
| 7 | Cincinnati Bengals | 4.9% |
| 8 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4.4% |
| 9 | Houston Texans | 2.5% |
| 10 | Minnesota Vikings | 2.0% |
| 11 | Green Bay Packers | 1.8% |
| 12 | Washington Redskins | 1.6% |
Do you think things are a bit top-heavy in the NFC?
This shouldn't come as a surprise given that the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Panthers occupy the top three spots in numberFire's power rankings, in that order. To find the next NFC team, you have to drop down to the Vikings in 10th.
Seeing the Cardinals this high is far from shocking, as they were on top of the power rankings as early as Week 3. They do have the tough task of potentially playing in Carolina, but they hold down the top spot by a pretty decent margin.
With the Seahawks entering the playoffs as a wild card team, their 7.5% odds are certainly of note. They are the most likely to win it of all teams that don't have a bye this week, a solid vote of confidence for the defending conference champs as they head to Minnesota.
In the AFC, things are far less clear. Despite being battered all down the stretch, the Patriots have the highest odds of all as they attempt to repeat. Tom Brady will be playing with a high ankle sprain, but the potential return of Julian Edelman should provide a boost for the offense.
Even with their mess at quarterback, the Broncos still have a 9.2% chance of winning the Super Bowl. That should tell you how good their defense has been, and it is one that compares favorably to recent great defenses. If they can nail down their offensive woes, those odds may trend upward quickly.
With all of this said, you can't make the mistake of overlooking the Steelers. They may have needed a loss from the New York Jets to make the playoffs, but they are dangerous now that they're in. They lead all AFC teams in our power rankings, and -- even with DeAngelo Williams potentially missing Sunday's game -- they may be the healthiest of the bunch. The path won't be easy, but with that offense, it's far from being impossible.