Even before the weekend hits, we've got drama in the NFL. Plenty of big-name players have injury concerns, and that's making it difficult to see how some of these games will play out.

Let's dig into some of the numbers and storylines for the AFC games this week, though, and see if we can make some sense of what's going to play out.

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs

No surprise here -- for the sixth straight year, the Patriots are making their playoff debut in the divisional round after securing a first-round bye. They'll be taking on a Chiefs team that finished the regular season 11-5, just one game back from the Denver Broncos in the AFC West.

The Patriots are consistently one of the top teams in the NFL, and this year is no different. Offensively, they ranked third in the league according to our numberFire Live has the Patriots' odds of winning at 62% right now, projecting this as the second closest game of the weekend.

Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The last time the Steelers and Broncos faced off in a playoff game, there was no shortage of excitement. The game came down to ruled out for the game on Sunday. PIttsburgh will also likely be without DeAngelo Williams, who became their starting running back when Le'Veon Bell went down for the season, as he's still recovering from a foot injury.

The step down from Roethlisberger to Jones is a huge one. Big Ben ranked fifth among quarterbacks with a 0.25 Passing NEP per drop back in 2015. Among the 51 quarterbacks to record at least 50 dropbacks on the year, Jones' 0.04 Passing NEP per drop back ranked only 34th. What this effectively means is that, on average, every five dropbacks that Jones takes are worth a full point less than five drop backs from Roethlisberger. Not ideal for a team that averaged just over 36 dropbacks per game in the regular season.

Taking away Pittsburgh's best weapons will make things even harder on Jones, if he were to get the nod. Antonio Brown contributed a massive 147.21 Reception NEP this season, more than Markus Wheaton (63.19) and Martavis Bryant (60.27) combined. Brown was the only receiver to catch more than 10 passes against Denver this season, as well as the only receiver to record at least 125 yards or score 2 touchdowns against them. Without Brown, this could be a long day for the Steelers offense.

Denver has a phenomenal pass rush, leading the league with 0.08 sacks per opponents' drop back. And they have one of the best secondaries in football behind it, led by Chris Harris, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward.

Pittsburgh's running game may not offer a ton of help for the offense this week, either. Not every offense can thrive even after losing a player of Le'Veon Bell's caliber, and it'll be even harder for Pittsburgh with DeAngelo Williams out. Among the 72 backs to record at least 50 carries on the season, Williams' 0.07 Rushing NEP per carry ranked eighth. He allowed the Steelers to use a balanced attack on offense, and really thrived in his workhorse role.

His potential replacements are Jordan Todman and Fitzgerald Toussaint. Neither are particularly exciting backs, though Todman managed a 0.53 Rushing NEP last week on 11 carries, while Toussaint posted a -2.03 Rushing NEP on 17 carries. Neither of these guys are more than likely going to thrive if asked to shoulder a major workload against Von Miller, Derek Wolfe, and the Broncos' fifth ranked run defense.

Of course, it's impossible to talk about this game without bringing up one of the biggest stories surrounding it: Peyton Manning's swan song.

Manning, for how incredible he's been throughout his career, and for how highly he stands in the all-time quarterback picture, has been terrible this year. His efficiency ranks 32nd among the 37 quarterbacks with at least 200 drop backs, posting a -0.02 Passing NEP per drop back. Even his backup, Brock Osweiler, managed a better season, ranking 22nd among that group with a 0.08 Passing NEP per drop back. It's really not a major stretch to suggest that Osweiler would give the Broncos a better chance at winning this week, but he hasn't been practicing all week, and it may be a moot point when Trevor Siemian backs up Manning on Sunday.

Another consequence of the Broncos' anemic passing offense is that they also struggled to run the ball. They ranked 27th in schedule-adjusted Rushing NEP, two spots behind their Passing NEP ranking. While both C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman eclipsed 150 carries on the season, neither managed to crack the top half in rushing efficiency among the 72 backs with 50-plus carries on the season.

The Broncos will be up against a Steelers defense that was quietly good this year. Our Net Expected Points metrics had them ranked fourth against the run, ninth against the pass, and ninth overall. They also forced turnovers at an excellent rate, ranking fourth in takeaways per opponents' snap.

With both teams fully healthy, we'd be treated to a matchup between the Steelers' elite offense and the Broncos' elite defense. And it would be hard to pick a side. As things stand, though, the Broncos look like clear favorites in this one, and according to our numbers, they're the second biggest favorites of the weekend.