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Daily Fantasy Football: Are Rookie Wide Receivers Too Volatile?
Rookie wide receivers have provided their share of highlights the past few years, but does that make them viable options in daily fantasy football?

The 2014 NFL season was nothing short of ign'ant for rookie wide receivers. You had Odell Beckham and his three-finger death grab, a 12-touchdown season for Mike Evans, and Kelvin Benjamin's garbage-time galore, just to name a few of the big contributors.

That season seemed to fly in the face of general perception that wide receivers are musts to avoid in their rookie seasons. It muddied the waters of the line of thinking when assessing these youngsters.

We've already seen that running backs a naturally volatile position, but rookies are even more so. Not an ideal combo.

However, the upside is intriguing. This is what brings us back to our previous discussion on touchdown rates.

Because touchdowns are so scarce and carry such a high point total, they bring with them additional volatility. That's bad for cash games. It's great for tournaments.

Rookie wide receivers over this time frame saw the same touchdown rates as non-rookies, and they were even better on a per-target basis. That's what leads me to think these guys are more than okay in tournaments.

In a tournaments, we do still want to consider floor, but we place a higher emphasis on ceiling. If we can find a guy like Evans who has a nose for the end zone, it's not the worst idea in the world to roll the dice on them. They possess similar upside, so if they come at a low price or ownership, then they should be on your radar.

Takeaways

We entered all of this not having any idea of what to expect out of rookie wide receivers. They either could have struggled as general perception had thought, or they could have been gang-busters like the 2014 class. It turns out that they are a good mix of both.

A majority of the time, you're not going to want to touch a rookie wide receiver in a cash game. Even when they're involved enough in the offense to see five targets, their efficiency leaves much to be desired. You'll find guys like Beckham who become heavily involved, but they appear to be the exception.

Tournaments, however, are a different story. Because the lack of experience didn't hinder touchdown rates, rookies still possessed similar upside to their older peers. It's a risky investment, sure, but that doesn't mean we should exclude them from consideration.

No matter what, it seems like we're going to inherit an extra shot of risk when we use rookie wide receivers. The key is assessing when that risk is worth it. If we can properly do so, we'll be able to bask in the upside of the 2014 class while hopefully avoiding the muck of most others.

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