I received a text from my wife this morning.
"Who is Adam LaRoche?"
Ugh.
I wasn't upset with her -- she, someone who really isn't that into baseball, heard his name and some of his retirement story on the radio on her way to work. I was upset that this non-story turned story made it all the way to some popular music station on Sirius XM.
We've got the NCAA Tournament, some historic NBA play, and Spring Training all happening at once, and people want to talk about Adam LaRoche's kid.
Alas, the public loves non-stories that turn into stories. Have you watched an episode of Keeping Up with the Kardashians?
Within fantasy football circles, the same type of scenario could be unfolding. Today, Alfred Morris inked a deal with the Dallas Cowboys, giving the team depth at a position that lacked it. And while I don't necessarily consider this to be a complete non-story, I do wonder what it's going to blow up to, especially in fantasy football. Because as we saw last year with Joseph Randle, it's easy to hype the situation a running back currently has with the Dallas Cowboys.
Is Alfred Morris really an answer?
By the Numbers
Morris hasn't exactly had a typical career. A sixth-round pick in 2012, he sort of lit up the league as a rookie, posting over 1,600 rushing yards while scoring 13 times, a feat accomplished by only two other rookie running backs in NFL history.
According to our Net Expected Points metric -- or NEP, which you can and should read about more in our Robert Griffin III played the majority of snaps (28 games) at quarterback for Washington. Analysts will more than likely attribute the majority of Morris' early success (in hindsight, especially) to this fact, and while it does seem reasonable, it's not super grounded in fact. Because, in truth, Morris averaged just seven yards per game fewer without RGIII in 2012 and 2013 than he did with him. And that's not all that significant.
What could be the bigger deal here is Kyle Shanahan. Now the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons, Shanahan spent 2010 to 2013 in Washington as their offensive coordinator. He implemented the zone blocking scheme, which has seen running backs -- under Shanahan's guidance -- like Steve Slaton and, last year, Devonta Freeman, thrive.
Look what happened to Morris' numbers after the departure of Shanahan, which coincided slightly with Robert Griffin III's benching.
Year | Rushing NEP | Per Rush | Success Rate |
---|---|---|---|
2014 | -11.86 | -0.04 | 40.00% |
2015 | -15.40 | -0.08 | 32.67% |
A quick glance comparing this table to the two above shows a completely different running back -- and one that continues to decline each year in the league. For reference, Morris hasn't been above the league average's Rushing NEP per rush over the last two years, and his Success Rate -- something that made him such an important back in the league -- was worst in the NFL among 100-plus attempt rushers last year.
He's also become increasing worse at breaking tackles, per Pro Football Focus' Pat Thorman.
Of course, so many things play into this. Yes, Shanahan left and RGIII's play turned disastrous, but the line arguably didn't get as much push over the last two years, and 2014 saw some really crappy quarterback play.
Even with that said, though, it's tough to be excited about a running back who ranked worst in Success Rate last year and one who has seen a decline in play each year in the league. The good news is that Dallas is a plus-situation that runs the zone blocking scheme, and we've seen another experienced back become somewhat rejuvenated in the Cowboys' system in the past.
Déjà Vu?
If you recall, the Cowboys made a move for a veteran running back just a season ago. That was Darren McFadden, who was written off -- Lance Dunbar, who re-signed with the Cowboys earlier this offseason. Dunbar is a passing game specialist, but his season was cut short last year due to a torn ACL and MCL. Prior to getting injured, though, Dunbar took over the passing-down role in the Cowboys' backfield, compiling 23 targets through Week 3. That was the most in the entire NFL at the position.
So if this is the bulk of the Cowboys' backfield moving into the 2016 season, what should we expect?
Well, Dunbar should be in line for a lot of targets. It's his role on the team, and Dallas isn't exactly filled with receiving talent.
That means the one way Morris ends up being anything like he was in the past in fantasy football is with Darren McFadden -- or a future rookie -- absent from the picture. Things are definitely favoring him seeing the most touches on early downs right now -- he's worked well in the zone blocking scheme in the past, he's younger than McFadden, and the Cowboys actively went out and signed him as a free agent.
But we should still be cautious before dubbing Alfred Morris any sort of middle-round fantasy football value. Couldn't this move have been strictly to provide depth to a rather barren backfield? Couldn't it simply be insurance?
This story isn't a non-story, because from a football standpoint, the move makes sense. From a fantasy football front, though? I'm not ready to dub Morris a must-grab.