We have entered the mid-week NHL lull. Some trends worth keeping an eye on this week -- 5 of 12 games required overtime or a shootout and 7 of 12 games stayed under the total.
Here are plays from both of tonight's games!
Nashville Predators vs Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago moneyline (+152): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Chicago +1.5 (-172): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 6.5 (-125): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Both the Nashville Predators and Chicago Blackhawks played their analytic cards correctly by saving Juuse Saros and Kevin Lankinen for the second night of a back-to-back. But the Blackhawks might benefit more, as they've been a noticeably better team with Lankinen between the pipes.
When Lankinen starts for the Hawks, they have posted a 53.1% Corsi rating, 48.2% scoring chance rating, and 52.1% high-danger rating at five-on-five. When Malcolm Subban starts those numbers plummet to 43.7%, 43.2%, and 39.5%, respectively. Needless to say, the Blackhawks feel more comfortable playing in front of Lankinen.
The Preds have brought back their usual defensive brand of hockey this season. So far, the team ranks 21st in scoring chance production and 27th in high-danger production. Unsurprisingly, this has resulted in the 27th-ranked expected goals-for, and the team has posted a 50.0% expected goals-for percentage, ranking them in the middle of the league. But the team has overachieved relative to those metrics by posting the sixth-ranked actual goals-for percentage at 61.1%, which suggests that a correction phase is looming.
In reconciling our projections with the betting market, there is an implied advantage in backing the Hawks. Backing them on the moneyline is a 2-star play while taking them to cover +1.5 goals is a 3-star play. There is also an advantage in taking the under, which we rate as a 1-star play.
Vancouver Canucks vs Ottawa Senators
Canucks moneyline (-162): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Canucks -1.5 (+166): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
If ass-whoopings are your thing, then you would have got a kick out of the Vancouver Canucks dismantling the Ottawa Senators on Monday night. There are some underlying metrics that to how the Sens season has gone that are cause for concern.
After winning their opening game of the season, the Sens have lost five straight. In that time, the teams opposing the Sens have combined for a 1.057 PDO, which speaks to both offensive and defensive efficiencies. However, goaltending metrics are the biggest concern for the Sens. Matt Murray and Marcus Hogberg have combined to stop only 87.7% of shots at five-on-five and 86.0% of shots overall.
The Canucks got off to a tough start on the year, dropping five of their first seven before trouncing the Sens earlier this week. Vancouver's now in the middle of a six-game home-stand and will look to build some momentum after showing their chops during last season's playoffs. The Canucks have been efficient at five-on-five as they lead the league in goals for, rank second in shots-far, fifth in scoring-chances, and eighth in high-danger chances. As we saw on Monday, that's more firepower than the Sens can handle.
numberFire's algorithm projects another loss for the Senators. In reviewing the metrics ahead of tonight's contest, the Canucks are in a different class than the Senators. Vancouver is in the middle of a home-stretch which will surely benefit them against a younger and more inexperienced Sens squad that has pushed the panic button early in the season. Canucks moneyline is a 2-star play and taking them on the puckline -1.5 is a 1-star play.