We are back with another full week of NHL hockey to look forward to. Favorites have been extremely ineffective at covering the -1.5 puckline over the last four days, winning by two or more goals in only 5 of 24 occasions, or 20.8% of the time.
Here are tonight's plays!
Ottawa Senators vs. Edmonton Oilers
Senators +1.5 (-168): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 6.5 (+120): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
After starting the year off with the worst save percentage in the NHL, the Ottawa Senators are finally trending in the right direction. Matt Murray posted consecutive above-average performances by stopping 94.3% of shots faced against the Montreal Canadiens. The Sens' team save percentage and Murray's save percentage are still well below normal and will continue to progress.
Similarly, the Sens' team defense as a whole is also trending in the right direction. Ottawa has limited their opponents to eight or fewer high-danger chances in three of their last four. That has translated to fewer high-danger goals against, as the Sens have allowed two or fewer in all four games -- they had allowed 23 such goals through their first eight games.
Goaltending issues are something that the Edmonton Oilers can relate to. The Oilers are just slightly ahead of the Senators in terms of save percentage, ranking 29th, compared to the Sens' 30th ranking. Mikko Koskinen's inconsistent play continues to cost the Oilers important points. He's posted a save percentage below 90.0% in four of his last five but has been bailed out by the Oilers' offense in winning two of those games.
Offensively, the Oilers are at a crossroads. Their production has dipped, with fewer scoring chances and high-danger chances over four of their last six games. Despite this decreased production, output has increased, as they are averaging 4.5 goals per game over that sample. Goals may be more scarce as production and output balance out.
The Senators were able to keep an equally potent Habs lineup at bay over their last two games. Now, with the benefit of a little extra time at home, they should be ready for the Oilers. This figures to be a low-scoring game as the Sens continue to improve their defensive metrics. This aligns with our projections, which rate the under 6.5 as a 1-star play. Expect the Sens to keep it close, much as they did against the Habs, if not win outright. Sens +1.5 is a 1-star play.
St. Louis Blues vs. Arizona Coyotes
Coyotes moneyline (+136): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Coyotes +1.5 (-215): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 5.5 (-125): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Don't look now but the 5-5-1 Arizona Coyotes could be poised for a run up the standings. The Coyotes have used a strong defensive system to win three of their last four. Across all strengths opponents are averaging 6.3 high-danger chances and 23.8 scoring chances over that four-game sample. Those averages drop to 4.0 and 17.3 when we consider only five-on-five metrics.
The increased defensive efficiency has come at a time with increased offensive production. The Coyotes have gone north of 12 high-danger chances in five of their last six games, resulting in nine high-danger goals. The Coyotes had seven such goals in their first six games. Whatever tweaks the Coyotes made to their systems are working.
Things aren't looking great for the St. Louis Blues who could be in the middle of a correction phase. The Blues have posted a negative expected goals-for percentage in seven of their first 12 games. What that implies is that they are getting outplayed and allowing more chances than they are creating. Despite that, they are 7-4-1 which means that they overachieving by a substantial margin. That implies that things may get worse for the Blues before they get better.
These teams are in the unique situation of playing six straight against each other. The Coyotes have had the upper hand by winning two of the first three. Although the numberFire algorithm projects the Blues as 55.5% favorites, the advantage lies in backing the Yotes. The +136 price carries with it an implied probability 42.4%, making the Coyotes moneyline a 1-star play. That advantage also applies to the puckline and is also rated as a 1-star play. These teams' defensive metrics suggest that the game should stay under the total, which is in alignment with our projections, making the under a 1-star play.