We are down to six playoff teams, as the Carolina Hurricanes were eliminated last by the Tampa Bay Lightning. That means that we're likely down to single-game slates in the NHL until the start of the 2021-22 NHL season in October. But a light schedule isn't going to stop us from outlining our picks from our daily projections in our NHL Betting Guide!
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New York Islanders vs. Boston Bruins
Islanders moneyline (+120): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 5.5 (-160): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Boston Bruins could be the next team to fall by the wayside in the NHL playoffs. The Bruins face a win-or-go-home proposition in tonight's game against the New York Islanders. The betting market favors the B's but based on our projections; the Islanders are the team worth backing.
The Islanders have been outstanding at home this postseason. Through five games, the Isles are averaging 32.4 scoring chances and 13.2 high-danger opportunities per game. The Islanders are making the most of those high-danger chances, recording 11 high-danger goals. Increased offensive pressure hasn't come at the expense of New York's defensive zone coverage, though. The Islanders have outscored their opponents 11-7 in high-danger goals and have been out-chanced in high-danger chances just one over the five games.
That's going to make things hard for the Bruins, who have been outplayed in three straight road games. Boston has failed to out-chance their opponents in high-danger chances, been out-possessed in two of three, resulting in a 41.5% expected goals-for percentage across all strengths. Home/road dichotomy will be a big advantage for the Islanders.
Boston's struggles could be compounded by an injury to Tuukka Rask. Rask departed Game 5 after stopping only 12 of 16 shots. That was the third time in five games that Rask has posted a below-average save percentage and the second time in four games that he's allowed four goals. Rask picked a bad time to come down with the yips, and that impacts their chances tonight.
Boston has a modest 50.7% advantage based on our projections, but the -142 price carries an implied probability of 58.7%. Conversely, the Islanders +120 moneyline price has an implied probability of 45.5%, leaving an edge in backing them to win. We rate it as a one-star play. We should expect a tight-checking game from the Bruins, as they play with their backs up against the wall, which should lead to a low-scoring game. The under is also rated as a one-star play.