The high-scoring start to the week started to reverse last night, with two of the three games staying under, compared to just six of the first 16. Goaltending usage could impact that trend tonight as five teams are playing on the first night of a back-to-back with one playing on the backend. That will carryover onto tomorrow's docket as teams get their goaltenders primed for another busy weekend.
Here are a few wagers from our daily proections!
Boston Bruins vs. Washington Capitals
Capitals moneyline (+154): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 6 (-115): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Boston Bruins play the Washington Capitals for the second time in 10 days, as the Caps look to avenge a 7-3 home defeat from January 10.
The Bruins are coming off a dud of a performance, and if their last matchup against the Caps is any indication, they'll have a hard time keeping pace with them again tonight.
Boston's offense was badly outmatched by the Carolina Hurricanes last time out, getting out-chanced 21-16 in scoring chances and 10-9 in quality opportunities. That's similar to what we saw from them against the Capitals five games ago, when they put up just six high-danger chances and 23 scoring opportunities to the Caps' 14 and 34.
That outing was part of a five-game stretch for Washington in which they've outplayed their opponents in four games but notched just two wins. Over that span, the Caps have established a 53.0% expected goals-for percentage but just a 0.976 PDO.
According to our projections, the Bruins are overvalued in tonight's contest. That leaves an edge in backing the Capitals on the moneyline, which we rate as a two-star play. There's also an advantage in backing the under, which we have rated as a one-star wager.
Los Angeles Kings vs. Colorado Avalanche
Kings +1.5 (-158): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Kings moneyline (+142): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Colorado Avalanche are playing the second leg of two games on consecutive nights against Southern California teams. The Avs knocked off the Anaheim Ducks 2-0 on Wednesday night and now travel to faceoff against the Los Angeles Kings.
Scheduling will factor into the Avs' preparations as not only will it be the second night of a back-to-back, but this is their seventh game over the past 11 nights and third back-to-back in that span. Pavel Francouz started last night, which means that Darcy Kuemper is the projected starter for this one. Kuemper is dealing with an upper-body injury and won't be fully healthy. More concerning, he has just an 89.9% save percentage on the road this season.
The Kings should be ready to take advantage of a tired Avs squad as LA remains one of the best analytics teams since the NHL returned to action. Over their past 10 games, the Kings have outplayed nine of their opponents at five-on-five, putting forth a 60.4% expected goals-for rating over that span. The Kings are flowing offensively, averaging 13.5 quality chances over that span, while limiting their opponents to just 8.4.
LA is due for a few more wins, as they've collected just six victories over their 10-game sample. Based on our algorithm, those should start tonight as the Kings moneyline and puck line bets are rated as two- and four-star wagers, respectively.