NHL fans on the east coast will be living their best lives on Thursday, as seven of the ten games on tonight's schedule start at 7 pm ET. That leaves only three other contests, two of which start at 8 pm ET and the last one starting at 9 pm ET. There was a little resistance in the favorites trend from the start of the week, with two underdogs winning the previous night. The overtime trend held steady, making it seven straight days with an overtime game.
These are the wagers we're looking at from our daily projections!
Ottawa Senators vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Senators (+225): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Don't look now, but the Ottawa Senators are making waves in the NHL. Thanks to some strong offensive performances, the Sens have won four of their past six games. We're expecting that to continue against the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday night.
The Sens' outcomes are supported by strong underlying metrics. Ottawa has outplayed four of their past six opponents, posting a cumulative 52.2% expected goals-for rating. That increase in metrics is supported by an increased save percentage, as the Sens are above average in four of their last five games.
Ottawa will need to lean into their hot goaltending and defensive structure to limit a thriving Canes' offense. The Hurricanes have scored 25 goals over their past five games, scoring on 15.2% of shots. In doing so, Carolina has elevated their PDO to the fifth-highest in the league, putting them at risk of regression over their coming games.
Carolina's offense has been nothing if not unsustainable recently. We're expecting some correction over their coming games, benefitting the Senators on Thursday night. Backing the home team at +225 is a one-star play, per our projections.
Winnipeg Jets vs. Vancouver Canucks
Jets (-172): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 5.5 (-114): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
We're diving into an all-Canadian matchup as the Winnipeg Jets host the Vancouver Canucks in a Western Conference showdown.
The Jets are coming in off their fifth straight loss, but our algorithm supports that there's an edge in backing the home team tonight.
The Jets' offense has torched opponents at home this season, and that's been evident over their recent home games. Winnipeg has attempted 11 or more quality chances at five-on-five in three of their past four games and 14 or more across all strengths in four straight. That has not yet impacted output; the Jets have been limited to 11 goals over that four-game sample, but their shooting percentage should start improving to reflect their solid production metrics.
It helps that the Canucks are dealing with goaltending woes. Thatcher Demko and Jaroslav Halak remain in COVID-19 protocols. That means that Spencer Martin is in line to get his third NHL start. Vancouver hasn't been doing him many favors, allowing 32 or more scoring chances and 34 or more shots in two of their past three games.
The Canucks' offense is looking good under Bruce Boudreau, but their goaltending concerns could catch up with them against the Jets tonight. Based on our projections, that leaves an edge in backing Winnipeg and the over, rated as two and one-star plays, respectively.