NHL action resumes tonight at 7:00 pm ET when the puck drops on a wild nine-game slate. There are a few heavy favorites entering tonight's schedule, but according to our projections, that leaves even more substantive edges to exploit.
These are some of the wagers from our daily projections!
Calgary Flames vs. Montreal Canadiens
Canadiens +2.5 (-138): 5-Star Rating out of 5
Under 6.5 (-118): 3-Star Rating out of 5
The Calgary Flames host the upstart Montreal Canadiens on Thursday night. After winning 8 games through their first 48 of the season, the Montreal Canadiens have 5 wins over their past 6. They carry that momentum into tonight's inter-conference battle and should keep this game closer than the betting market implies.
It's more than just the results going the Canadiens' way, as they have improved their standing in the analytics forum. The Habs have outplayed their opponents in four straight games and five of nine under Martin St. Louis. One of the improvements St. Louis has made is in the defensive end, as the Habs have limited their opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances in six of those nine contests.
That's a similar brand of hockey that the Flames have been playing all season and continue to display on a nightly basis. Over their past 10 games, only two opponents have attempted more than eight high-danger chances. More impressively, only one of those opponents have attempted more than 23 scoring opportunities over that span.
Goals will be at a premium when these teams face off in Calgary. The Habs have tightened things up in their defensive zone, which is something the Flames have thrived at all season.
In a tight-checking game like this, it's not surprising that our algorithm reveals two significant plays. The under is rated as a three-star play, and backing the Habs at +2.5 is rated as a five-star play.
Florida Panthers vs. Ottawa Senators
Senators +2.5 (-134): 5-Star Rating out of 5
There is a similarly rated play in tonight's Atlantic Division battle between the Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators. The Panthers were flying too close to the sun over their recent sample and have come back down to earth. That should help the Sens keep things close in the Sunshine State.
Florida's demise was inevitable as they were substantially overachieving relative to their metrics. The Panthers' metrics remain inflated and that's reflected in their seventh-ranked 1.016 PDO. Similarly, they've scored 216 goals compared to the expected goals-for total of 187.6, inflating their actual goals-for percentage beyond expected. All of which suggests that further correction could be coming from the Panthers.
Conversely, the Sens have underachieved relative to their expected metrics. Ottawa has scored 136 goals compared to their expected total of 139.9, and their actual goals-for percentage is below expected, resulting in a PDO below the 1.000 threshold. The Sens have shown flashes of brilliance over the past few weeks, and they are in a good position to improve their metrics against a Panthers team in the midst of regression.
Based on our projections, there is a substantive edge in backing the Sens on the puckline. Florida has struggled to contain scoring, and the Sens have seen improved play from Matt Murray over their recent stretch, posting above-average save percentages in seven of his past nine appearances. We rate the Sens +2.5 as a five-star play.