Yesterday, with our under-six-goals ticket proverbially in my hand, Vegas had a 3-0 lead. All they had to do was survive the remainder of the third period without giving up three goals.
Oof.
However, I feel little right to complain. Someone out there -- maybe even you -- had a Montreal Canadiens moneyline ticket yesterday. That's one I'd have called out of work for.
Maybe our model sympathizes with my exhaustion. We're not betting moneylines or totals today, so overtime can kick rocks.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning
Red Wings +1.5 (-128) - 3 Stars
We've got three pucklines today as we hit that time of year when the public has made their mind up on teams.
Normally, to get a fairly priced spread, I'm supporting a bad team. This isn't even the case. Detroit has an expected-goals-for percentage (xGF%) of 51.9%, which is 14th-best in the league. Tampa Bay, who have surged since their early-season slump, sits at 10th-best (52.4%).
This line is even more absurd if you consider the Wings have had the edge in goal, too. Ville Husso (4.16 goals saved above expectation) has slightly outperformed the credentialed Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.77 GSAx).
This line is built on the most premium source of value in sports betting -- reputation. The Bolts are the been-there-done-that former champions, and the Red Wings have wallowed in despair for years. As a result, our model and I are loving this line.
It projects Detroit to cover a whopping 65.0% of the time against these 55.0% implied odds.
Montreal Canadiens at Seattle Kraken
Canadiens +1.5 (-122) - 3 Stars
This puckline is the most suspect of the three, but it's also against the worst favorite of these three.
Seattle has seen 54.0% of their games' goals in their direction (eighth-best in the NHL), but they're a bit overvalued on that alone -- or their 15-6-3 record. The Kraken are just 15th in xGF% (51.8%), which is probably a more fair evaluation of their talent.
I'm not going to convince you Montreal is better; their 41.2 xGF% is second-worst in the NHL. However, they're a competent team when Jake Allen (2.18 GSAx) is in net, and a large reason they blew last night's lead in Vancouver was saving Allen for tonight's game.
A team as pedestrian as Seattle shouldn't have a puckline this inflated -- even with the Habs unrested. Our model is expecting Montreal to cover this spread 64.6% of the time.
Carolina Hurricanes at Anaheim Ducks
Ducks +1.5 (-110) - 3 Stars
If asked, of the three pucklines in today's guide, I'd be most confident in this side to cash.
First, Anaheim is at home, and they are rested. I get the Ducks aren't anyone's favorite team to bet on; they're just the smallest bit ahead of Montreal in terms of xGF% (41.4%). However, in this spot, they're going to have a real chance to win outright.
One of the reasons to love betting on these bad teams? They usually get backup netminders. That's the case today as Carolina sends Pyotr Kochetkov to the crease. He's performed well in limited action so far (6.31 GSAx), but most likely, the 23-year-old rookie isn't going to escape his premier campaign with Vezina-caliber numbers.
The Canes have scored the sixth-fewest real goals per 60 minutes this year. They've been a great team to bet unders, but today, their low-scoring nature could lead to the lowly Ducks hanging around.
Our model pegs Anaheim with a 62.1% chance to cover the puckline (52.5% implied odds) in this one.