I posted Friday's picks on Twitter. Congrats if you missed them; they were a small loser, which turned the week into one.

We've got a fresh week starting today, and a whopping four-star recommendation from the model is present to get us going.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

Flyers +1.5 (-132) - 4 Stars

The Buffalo Sabres have been prone to playing pond hockey this year, so while a puckline against them can seem pointless, the Flyers are the side with value here.

Buffalo has the most overperforming offense in the league. They lead the NHL in goals per 60 minutes (3.69) despite ranking just 11th in expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes (3.23). Tage Thompson's Conn Smythe Trophy bid aside, this Sabres attack has to cool down soon, right?

It's not as if Philly isn't a matchup that can lead to a high-shot-volume loss. Despite the Flyers allowing the ninth-most expected goals (xGA) per 60 (3.29), Carter Hart has done a great job cleaning up on the back end. He's 10th in hockey in terms of goals saved above expectation (10.19 GSAx).

Our model sees Philadelphia hanging within a tally 70.1% of the time. The juice behind these 56.9% implied odds is forgivable, too. This will be my rare two-unit hockey bet.