According to almost any mathematical model, the Pittsburgh Penguins were favorites to win the Stanley Cup entering the NHL's Conference Finals.

But today, they're on the brink of elimination.

After trailing by two goals in the second period in a pivotal Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals last night, the Lightning, per RinkStats.com, had just over a 10% chance to win the contest. But they fought back and made it a game -- more than a game -- by tying it all up at two goals apiece.

At the end of the second period, Chris Kunitz scored for Pittsburgh, sending the Penguins to the third period with a one-goal lead. At that point in time, Pittsburgh's chances of taking a 3-2 series lead were over 75%, per Rink Stats.

Tampa Bay's odds actually shrunk to about 6.5% late in the third period after failing to tie the game up.

And then this happened.

The game went into overtime, where a fortunate deflection off of Tyler Johnson sealed the game for the Lightning.

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With the win, the Lightning are now strong favorites to win the Eastern Conference Finals, and thanks to a tied Western Conference Final, they currently have the highest odds to win the Stanley Cup at 37.34%.