Group F: Germany, Mexico, Sweden, Korea Republic

Group F Favorites -- Germany

How deep is this year’s version of the four-time world champions? When the final German squad was named on June 4, Manchester City’s Leroy Sane -- the PFA’s Young Player of the Year and one of only five in the Premier League to hit double-digit goals and assists last season -- was deemed surplus to requirements.

As Sane would not only start but likely be the focal point for over half the teams involved in Russia this summer, his omission says volumes about the wealth of talent once again at Joachim Low’s disposal.

Still, it’s not like the manager is resting on his laurels in terms of squad selection. Only eight of the 23 from Germany’s 2014 title-winning side are back in the fold this summer, with a number of the new faces coming from the die Mannschaft “B” Team that won the Confederations Cup in 2017.

Yes, some questions linger over Manuel Neuer’s fitness -- Low has said the 32-year old will remain his first-choice keeper despite missing nearly all the Bundesliga season after breaking a bone in his foot for the second time in a six-month span -- and yes, there is still a leadership void following the retirement of captain Philipp Lahm, but those feel like ancillary problems for one of the most complete sides in the world.

Our metrics give the European giants a 39% chance to reach the semis and a 9% chance to win it all -- the fourth-best odds in the field -- but it would hardly be a surprise if they became just the third side in history to win back-to-back World Cups.

Team of Intrigue -- Mexico

When it comes to El Tri and major international tournaments, there’s been a familiar sense of déjà vu for the better part of three decades now.

In each of the last six World Cups, the Mexican national team has always found a way to make it out of the group stage, only to bow out in the first knockout round every time.

But while that was the case in Brazil in 2014 and in Russia at last summer’s Confederations Cup, Juan Carlos Osorio’s men will have to overachieve just to meet that Round-of-16 benchmark that’s become the bare minimum requirement for the Azteca faithful.

Our projections see Mexico as the third choice in Group F (behind Germany and Sweden), but after a near-perfect CONCACAF qualifying cycle, consistency in the technical area and a host of top players in their prime, there’s little reason to doubt the North American powerhouse will end up playing a fourth game in Russia.

After all, it’s what they do.

Star Watch -- Son Heung-Min

German firepower notwithstanding, no one in Group F commands the spotlight quite like the 25-year-old Spurs attacker.

World soccer’s most expensive Asian player, Son has been a sensation in his home country since his time with Hamburg in the Bundesliga, but his star has risen worldwide since heading to White Hart Lane in 2015, highlighted by a 12-goal, 6-assist campaign for Mauricio Pochettino this past season.

Son scored seven times in qualifying for the Taegeuk Warriors, firing them to their ninth consecutive World Cup appearance with a runner-up finish in their AFC qualifying group behind Iran. Though chances are slim that they’ll escape the group stage for just the third time in their history, any shock on the cards will likely be spearheaded by the pacey forward from Chuncheon.

Match In Focus

Sweden vs. Mexico -- June 27, Ekaterinburg

With Germany penciled in as group winners, the battle for second place will likely come down to this Matchday 3 clash in the easternmost host city of Russia 2018.

The Zlatan-less Swedes have had their share of high moments this World Cup cycle, including a defeat of France in qualifying and a historic dismissal of three-time world champions Italy in the UEFA playoffs, but they’ve won just once in six tries since November and were dreadful in their last major tournament, a toothless group stage-exit at Euro 2016.

After that disappointment, it’ll be fascinating to see how this new generation of Swedish stars -- highlighted by Emil Forsberg of RB Leipzig and Victor Lindelof of Manchester United -- handle the spotlight at the nation’s first World Cup since 2006, especially against a Mexico side that’s been there and done that on an annual basis.

What Lies Ahead

Yet another example where winning the group really matters. The first-place team in Group F will likely face Switzerland or Serbia in the Round of 16, while the runners-up could see Brazil in the opening knockout round before taking on Belgium in the quarterfinals.

Having to beat two of the top-three teams, per our numbers, in the tournament just to reach the semis? Not exactly an ideal scenario.

numberFire Projections

Germany -- 65.54% to top group, 90.75% to advance

Sweden -- 27.49% to top group, 75.53% to advance

Mexico -- 5.2% to top group, 24.04% to advance

South Korea -- 1.77% to top group, 9.68% to advance