If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features six matches. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Slate Overview
Leeds (+460) at Chelsea (-160)
Over 2.5 Goals: -116 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang (+145)
Bournemouth (+1300) at Arsenal (-490)
Over 2.5 Goals: -178 | Most Likely to Score: Nketiah (+110)
Tottenham (+120) at Wolves (+240)
Over 2.5 Goals: +106 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (+135)
Crystal Palace (+290) at Aston Villa (+105)
Over 2.5 Goals: +124 | Most Likely to Score: Watkins (+195)
West Ham (+350) at Brighton (-130)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Ferguson (+170)
Leicester (+160) at Southampton (+170)
Over 2.5 Goals: +102 | Most Likely to Score: Vardy (+160)
Matchweek 26 features three big-six sides, with Tottenham, Arsenal, and Chelsea in action on a six-game main slate.
Arsenal (-490 to win) are the largest favorite on the slate, and Eddie Nketiah ($19) has the best odds to score (+110) of any player who could be active on Saturday. Nketiah, who has come off the bench in Arsenal's last two fixtures, is dealing with an ankle injury and could be unavailable on Saturday.
Chelsea (-160) are the second-largest favorite, followed by Brighton (-130). Aston Villa (+105), Tottenham (+120), and Leicester (+160) round out the slate as slight home favorites.
Coming off back-to-back impressive performances, Arsenal appear to be back on track following their four-game blip in February. Now they get a dream matchup against a Bournemouth side that is allowing a league-worst 2.0 goals per Premier League match this season. With Chelsea still struggling and Tottenham coming off a loss to Championship side Sheffield United in the FA Cup, Arsenal's stars will be extremely popular.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Danny Welbeck, FWD/MID, Brighton
FanDuel Salary: $15
Welbeck returned to the pitch during Tuesday's FA Cup match after missing Brighton's last two games due to injury. His substitute appearance indicates that he should be available for this weekend's clash versus West Ham and could return to the starting lineup. Before his injury, Welbeck made back-to-back starts, producing a combined four shots and three chances created.
Welbeck has only one goal on the season, but his odds to score this weekend (+195) are only slightly worse than those of Martin Odegaard ($21; +180) and are better than anyone's on Tottenham besides Harry Kane ($21; +140). His odds are also better than Chelsea's Joao Felix ($19; +200).
Despite operating as a forward on a home favorite, Welbeck should go overlooked this weekend, even on his own team. Both Evan Ferguson ($18) and Kaoru Mitoma ($17) will likely command a higher draft percentage. Assuming Welbeck starts, he is well worth consideration as a key part of a Brighton attack that has netted the third-most goals in the Premier League over the last six fixtures.
Raheem Sterling, FWD/MID, Chelsea
FanDuel Salary: $16
With no wins in their last six and just one win in their last 11, things are historically bad at Chelsea. The results haven't been there, and most notably, the goals haven't been there. Chelsea has just two goals scored across their last six matches, tied for the fewest in the Premier League. It isn't for lack of trying, though -- Chelsea's 11.8 shots per game ranks 10th in the league. The finishing just hasn't been there.
Sterling has missed time for multiple reasons this season and has not been consistently available since the league resumed after the World Cup. When he has been available, Sterling has been one of Chelsea's most effective forwards. His four goals this season sit second on the team, behind only Kai Havertz ($17), who has played 434 more minutes than Sterling.
Sterling has scored more than 21.0 FanDuel points in three of his last six starts. His inconsistent availability, combined with Chelsea's struggles, are obscuring a decent outlook this weekend against Leeds. What interest there is in Chelsea will likely be focused on Felix and Enzo Fernandez ($15).
Sterling has a history of production in the Premier League and is playing for the second-largest favorite on the slate. He's worth considering.
Harvey Barnes, FWD/MID, Leicester City
FanDuel Salary: $16
Leicester City enter Saturday on a three-match losing streak and should go overlooked coming off a one-goal defeat to Blackburn in the FA Cup on Tuesday. That loss aside, Leicester's recent struggles can be slightly excused considering that their losses came against two of the best teams in the league right now -- Arsenal and Manchester United.
Before those defeats, Leicester had won two in a row and scored a combined 10 goals in three games. This weekend, they will face a Southampton side that was also knocked out of the FA Cup this week and just lost a pivotal relegation battle with Leeds last weekend. Southampton's 19 goals conceded at home this season are the most in the Premier League, while Leicester's 21 away goals rank fourth-best.
Barnes has been a staple of Leicester's starting 11 this campaign, starting 22 games in a row since August. His eight goals this season are behind only James Maddison ($20) for the team lead and four of those goals came in his last six matches, including two in his last three.
Leicester's recent struggles should cause Barnes to go overlooked this weekend despite his production. At a modest salary, he is worth a long look in large-field tournaments this weekend.