The Premier League campaign is winding down, and we're firmly at the business end of the season.
Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Everton at Wolves
Wolves Over 1.5 Goals (+164)
I'll be straight with you -- Wolves have been awful in attack this season. They have scored multiple goals in only three of their last 15 EPL matches. They've created the fewest expected goals (xG) in the league this campaign (34.8), per FBRef's xG model. It's been a poor display from them in 2022-23.
But they have a dream matchup on Saturday as they host Everton.
As bad as Wolves are going forward, the Toffees are every bit as bad in defense. Everton have conceded the most xG in the league (63.7), and the appointment of Sean Dyche hasn't done much to fix their leaks at the back. While the big sides have ripped them apart, Everton have also allowed two goals to Forest, three to Fulham, two versus Leicester, two against West Ham, two to Villa and two to Southampton -- all of those coming across their last 18 matches.
Everton have been particularly bad on the road, giving up 37.5 xG in 17 away fixtures, including 20.7 xG in their last nine away matches.
When these two teams played earlier this year at Goodison, Wolves won by a 2-1 score, and Wolves also have a little more firepower now with Pedro Neto back healthy.
It's not going to feel good to back Wolves' attack, but they should be able to cause Everton a lot of problems, making this +164 price awfully appealing.
Southampton at Brighton
Brighton First-Half Moneyline (-175)
Brighton Over 2.5 Goals (-106)
I worry for Southampton on Sunday. The Saints have already been relegated, and they have to travel to Brighton to take on a good Seagulls squad.
Southampton have been reeling of late, taking just two points from their past 10 matches and conceding 25 goals in that span -- and that was with them fighting for their EPL lives. With the Saints' fate sealed, who knows what kind of energy levels they'll come with on Sunday or what kind of team they'll put out. It's not hard to envision Brighton breaking whatever is left of Southampton's will.
Brighton played Arsenal off the pitch at the Emirates last weekend and is one of the best sides in the league. The Seagulls have been excellent going forward in recent home matches, racking up an impressive 13.0 xG over their past four home games, including 6.5 total across matches versus Manchester United and Brentford, two sides in the top half of the table.
I think Brighton roll, and I am getting exposure to that by taking their first-half moneyline (-175) as well as backing them to score over 2.5 goals (-106). One word of warning, though: I'm going to wait until I see Brighton's starting lineup on Sunday morning to place the over 2.5 goals bet. With Brighton playing Thursday, they may chop and change, but as long as they field a strong XI, I'll be on them to score at least three.
Player Props
Jarrod Bowen to Score or Assist (+115): West Ham are at home versus a Leeds side that have gone 13 straight matches without keeping a clean sheet and have shipped 27 goals over their last nine matches. Bowen paces West Ham in assists (four) and is tied for the Hammers' team lead in goals plus assists (nine). I like his chances of contributing to a goal in this sublime matchup.
Alexander Isak Anytime Goalscorer (-105): Isak draws a sweet home matchup with Leicester. The Foxes are having massive issues at the back, permitting 10 goals across their past three matches, including two to Everton and five at Fulham. Newcastle's attack should find a lot of joy, and Isak has recorded 11 goals plus assists in 14 EPL starts. Plus, motivation won't be an issue for the Magpies as they're looking to lock up a top-four spot.