For the first time since the COVID-19 layoff, the UFC is back in Vegas for Saturday's Fight Night, headlined by Tyron Woodley and Gilbert Burns. In that sense, we're getting (somewhat) a return to normalcy.
That doesn't mean the card, itself, is a normal one. Of the 22 fighters lined up, seven are in either their first or second official UFC event, and we've already had one of the bigger names -- Kevin Holland -- drop out. That's going to make for unique circumstances when we're filling out UFC DFS lineups.
For a lot of the fighters, the data around them is limited, meaning we're going to have to do some extrapolation when deciding how they'll match up within the octagon. Data can play a key role for UFC, especially with the way FanDuel's scoring rules are set up, so having less of it can lead to some uncomfortable decisions.
That's why it's key to take in everything together. We may not have a ton of individual-level data on the fighters, but we can still get a read on them by looking at what sportsbooks are saying about them and their opponent. When you put that next to the data, it can give us a comprehensive overview of the slate. Well, at least as comprehensive as we can get in this scenario.
The table below shows the pertinent data we need to fill out lineups for Saturday's DFS slate. The fighters are sorted by their FanDuel salaries with the most expensive fighters at the top. Holland is in the player pool but has been removed from the chart. His replacement, Gabriel Green, was included in the chart so that you could get a glimpse at him, but he is not in the FanDuel player pool (UPDATE: Green has since been added to the player pool and carries a $12 salary).
With the small samples on the fighters themselves, this will be a good slate to put stock in the betting numbers, of which there are two on the chart. The first is simply the fighter's win odds based on the moneylines at UFC odds. The moneylines were converted to a percentage, and the vig was removed to give a better read on each fighter's chance to get the win bonus on FanDuel.
The second number is that fighter's odds of winning by knockout or submission, based on the double chance odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. With fighters earning 100 points on FanDuel if they get a first-round win (and other bumps for early wins in general), it's important to find fighters with the upside to win without it going to a decision. This can be a key, too, for finding fighters you want to plug into your MVP slot, which earns a 1.5x points multiplier on FanDuel.
After the betting odds are the individual numbers, all via UFCStats.com. "SubAp15" is submission attempts per 15 minutes, "TDp15" is takedowns per 15 minutes, and "SSLPM" is significant strikes landed per minute. These categories are all on different scales and earn differing levels of FanDuel points, so they are blended together in the FanDuel points per minute (FD PPM) column on the far-right, allowing you to see some fighters who may have a high-volume approach before considering their win odds.
The final set of stats is "TDD%" (and the mark of each fighter's opponent), which shows how often they successfully defend takedowns. Both takedowns and takedown defenses count for points on FanDuel, so finding fighters who match up well with their opponents in those departments can help unlock paths to additional points.
The final note here is the sample size on some of the fighters. Saturday will be the second UFC fight for Billy Quarantillo ($18), Jamahal Hill ($17), Spike Carlyle ($14), Daniel Rodriguez ($13), and Brok Weaver ($11), meaning the sample on their individual stats will be just one fight each. This is the UFC debut for the aforementioned Green and Brandon Royval ($14).
With those caveats in mind, here's the data to know for Saturday's card.
| Fighter | Opponent | Salary | Win% | KO/Sub% | SubAp15 | TDp15 | oTDD% | TDD% | SSLPM | FD PPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyron Woodley | Gilbert Burns | $22 | 63.0% | 39.2% | 0.5 | 1.21 | 44% | 92% | 2.50 | 0.80 |
| Roosevelt Roberts | Brok Weaver | $21 | 74.4% | 39.2% | 0.5 | 1.84 | 70% | 58% | 2.87 | 1.07 |
| Casey Kenney | Louis Smolka | $19 | 72.2% | 28.6% | 0.6 | 1.40 | 30% | 52% | 3.39 | 0.96 |
| Mackenzie Dern | Hannah Cifers | $19 | 80.2% | 62.3% | 0.9 | 0.46 | 64% | 0% | 3.24 | 0.68 |
| Gilbert Burns | Tyron Woodley | $18 | 37.0% | 28.6% | 0.7 | 2.39 | 92% | 44% | 3.13 | 1.38 |
| Tim Elliott | Brandon Royval | $18 | 60.3% | 31.3% | 1.2 | 4.14 | -- | 57% | 3.49 | 2.27 |
| Billy Quarantillo | Spike Carlyle | $18 | 56.7% | 35.7% | 4.0 | 0.80 | 100% | 60% | 10.77 | 2.30 |
| Chris Gutierrez | Vince Morales | $17 | 52.6% | 20.8% | 0.0 | 0.38 | 55% | 66% | 3.65 | 0.37 |
| Jamahal Hill | Klidson Abreu | $17 | 56.1% | 30.3% | 0.0 | 0.00 | 80% | 53% | 7.92 | 0.48 |
| Augusto Sakai | Blagoy Ivanov | $17 | 51.0% | 26.3% | 0.0 | 0.24 | 75% | 88% | 5.51 | 0.43 |
| Vince Morales | Chris Gutierrez | $16 | 47.4% | 18.2% | 0.0 | 0.00 | 66% | 55% | 4.84 | 0.29 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | Augusto Sakai | $16 | 49.0% | 25.6% | 0.2 | 1.07 | 88% | 75% | 3.09 | 0.68 |
| Klidson Abreu | Jamahal Hill | $15 | 43.9% | 23.8% | 0.0 | 0.67 | 53% | 80% | 2.02 | 0.39 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | Katlyn Chookagian | $15 | 56.7% | 18.9% | 1.0 | 0.67 | 50% | 58% | 4.90 | 0.90 |
| Brandon Royval | Tim Elliott | $14 | 39.7% | 26.3% | -- | -- | 57% | -- | -- | -- |
| Spike Carlyle | Billy Quarantillo | $14 | 43.3% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.00 | 60% | 100% | 14.12 | 0.85 |
| Katlyn Chookagian | Antonina Shevchenko | $13 | 43.3% | 14.3% | 0.1 | 0.00 | 58% | 50% | 4.11 | 0.28 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | Gabriel Green | $13 | 74.4% | 59.2% | 0.6 | 2.54 | -- | 66% | 6.65 | 1.62 |
| Gabriel Green | Daniel Rodriguez | $12 | 25.6% | 22.7% | -- | -- | 66% | -- | -- | -- |
| Louis Smolka | Casey Kenney | $11 | 27.8% | 15.4% | 2.1 | 1.65 | 52% | 30% | 4.22 | 1.61 |
| Brok Weaver | Roosevelt Roberts | $11 | 25.6% | 16.7% | 0.8 | 0.00 | 58% | 70% | 5.57 | 0.60 |
| Hannah Cifers | Mackenzie Dern | $10 | 19.8% | 12.5% | 0.3 | 0.32 | 0% | 64% | 4.82 | 0.52 |
As always, the data alone won't be enough to help you nail a slate, especially with so many inexperienced fighters. To help with that, we've also got a full podcast with Austin Swaim, breaking down his thoughts on the card, which you can find here or on Apple and Spotify.
The hope is that the data will help you find plays who fit the process you want to utilize for your lineups. It's a tough card with all of the unknowns, but there's still plenty we can glean from the data we do have.