We've got another UFC Pay-Per-View night coming up on Saturday, and it's a big'n.
UFC 250 is a 12-fight card, headlined by Amanda Nunes ($23) against Felicia Spencer ($13). This gives us 24 different fighters to target on FanDuel, an increase from what we've had in most of the recent cards.
This is also a different slate in another way. There seems to be a bit of imbalance on the fights themselves that could skew the way we build lineups.
In the past three cards combined, only four fighters were even money or better to win by either knockout or submission, based on FanDuel Sportsbook's double chance odds. A lot of the fights seemed likely to go to a decision.
This time, three fighters are -160 or better to win by knockout or submission, and they happen to be the three most expensive fighters on the slate. In other words, we're going to want to pay up for some studs, potentially altering our roster construction to do so.
Data can help us here, both in aiding us in that prioritization and in finding value plays that can help us jam in those costly fighters. The data we can lean on to make those decisions is listed below.
The betting odds will be the main crux of our discovery because they show us which fighters have the best odds to get win bonuses and potentially win early via knockout or submission. Those odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday morning, and the match win odds have been adjusted to take out the vig.
After that is fighter-level data from UFCStats.com. As always, "SubAp15" is submission attempts per 15 minutes, "TDp15" is takedowns per 15 minutes, "SSLPM" is significant strikes landed per minute, and "FD PPM" combines those categories together to show the number of FanDuel points a fighter averages once you account for those categories. The "TDD%" is the takedown defense, showing the percentage of times that fighter and their opponent successfully defend a takedown, another category in which you can earn FanDuel points.
Because this is a better card, the sample size caveats aren't as pertinent as they were last week. But here, Herbert Burns ($18), Chase Hooper ($16), and Maki Pitolo ($13) are all entering just their second UFC fights, meaning their data below is for just one fight. Alonzo Menifield ($21) is entering his third UFC fight.
| Fighter | Opponent | Salary | WinOdds | KO/SubOdds | SubAp15 | TDp15 | oTDD% | TDD% | SSLPM | FD PPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | Felicia Spencer | $23 | 87.5% | 71.4% | 0.7 | 2.33 | 0% | 80% | 4.34 | 1.43 |
| Sean O'Malley | Eddie Wineland | $22 | 80.6% | 62.3% | 1.2 | 1.24 | 86% | 50% | 6.87 | 1.31 |
| Alonzo Menifield | Devin Clark | $21 | 67.4% | 61.5% | 0.0 | 0.00 | 80% | 80% | 5.07 | 0.30 |
| Cody Stamann | Brian Kelleher | $20 | 71.2% | 19.2% | 0.0 | 3.58 | 84% | 86% | 4.25 | 1.69 |
| Charles Byrd | Maki Pitolo | $19 | 61.7% | 40.0% | 1.9 | 2.52 | 25% | 57% | 3.86 | 1.87 |
| Herbert Burns | Evan Dunham | $18 | 70.6% | 56.5% | 5.8 | 2.88 | 80% | 100% | 2.31 | 3.22 |
| Alex Perez | Jussier Formiga | $18 | 55.8% | 24.4% | 1.5 | 3.27 | 87% | 87% | 4.48 | 2.08 |
| Neil Magny | Anthony Rocco Martin | $17 | 58.3% | 20.8% | 0.3 | 2.70 | 64% | 59% | 3.93 | 1.42 |
| Aljamain Sterling | Cory Sandhagen | $17 | 52.6% | 20.0% | 0.8 | 1.91 | 27% | 51% | 4.85 | 1.32 |
| Cody Garbrandt | Raphael Assuncao | $17 | 57.4% | 41.7% | 0.0 | 0.94 | 80% | 100% | 3.53 | 0.59 |
| Ian Heinisch | Gerald Meerschaert | $17 | 55.0% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 1.18 | 46% | 62% | 3.38 | 0.84 |
| Chase Hooper | Alex Caceres | $16 | 60.9% | 50.0% | 3.8 | 0.77 | 58% | 100% | 5.16 | 1.88 |
| Cory Sandhagen | Aljamain Sterling | $15 | 47.4% | 19.2% | 0.6 | 1.24 | 51% | 27% | 7.14 | 1.12 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | Ian Heinisch | $15 | 45.0% | 27.0% | 1.7 | 2.37 | 62% | 46% | 3.32 | 1.71 |
| Raphael Assuncao | Cody Garbrandt | $15 | 42.6% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 1.54 | 100% | 80% | 3.32 | 0.92 |
| Anthony Rocco Martin | Neil Magny | $14 | 41.7% | 15.4% | 1.1 | 0.68 | 59% | 64% | 2.70 | 0.80 |
| Evan Dunham | Herbert Burns | $14 | 29.4% | 16.7% | 1.0 | 1.83 | 100% | 80% | 5.35 | 1.39 |
| Jussier Formiga | Alex Perez | $14 | 44.2% | 19.6% | 0.6 | 1.87 | 87% | 87% | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| Alex Caceres | Chase Hooper | $14 | 39.1% | 23.3% | 0.8 | 0.53 | 100% | 58% | 3.98 | 0.72 |
| Maki Pitolo | Charles Byrd | $13 | 38.3% | 26.3% | 0.9 | 0.00 | 57% | 25% | 5.42 | 0.63 |
| Felicia Spencer | Amanda Nunes | $13 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 0.7 | 1.36 | 80% | 0% | 4.54 | 1.05 |
| Brian Kelleher | Cody Stamann | $12 | 28.8% | 22.2% | 0.8 | 1.26 | 86% | 84% | 4.65 | 1.05 |
| Devin Clark | Alonzo Menifield | $11 | 32.6% | 17.2% | 0.1 | 3.03 | 80% | 80% | 3.12 | 1.43 |
| Eddie Wineland | Sean O'Malley | $10 | 19.4% | 16.7% | 0.1 | 0.28 | 50% | 86% | 3.41 | 0.35 |
As you can see, the top of the salary board is filled with big knockout potential, and that gives us the opportunity for monster FanDuel outputs. Nunes' odds to win early are higher than the straight-up win odds of all but one other fighter. So pour through the data, see which of those studs is the biggest priority for you, lock them in, and then use the numbers to build from there.