3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/22/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Using the odds available at Bovada Sportsbook, here are three prop bets available tonight that are good plays based on our daily MLB game projections.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
Alex Wood OVER 5 Strikeouts (+100)
At even money odds for the over, our models have highlighted Alex Wood as a potential prop betting value tonight against the New York Mets. Wood has racked up five or more strikeouts in 8 of his 14 starts, and the Mets have really struggled against left-handed pitching this year.
New York has a 25.8% strikeout rate against lefties as a team, which is second-highest in the league. Combine that with a dead-last .280 wOBA against southpaws, and it's kind of baffling Bovada has the over at even money tonight. With that in mind, our models project Wood for 6.15 strikeouts.
Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves
Sean Newcomb OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Sean Newcomb is maintaining a career-best 24.9% strikeout rate this season, and his interleague matchup with the Baltimore Orioles is one our models are very bullish on.
Newcomb is averaging more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings over his last two starts, and as a team, the Orioles own a 24.0% strikeout rate. We tried and failed to take advantage of the Orioles with a southpaw two nights ago with Gio Gonzalez. However, our models are much higher on Newcomb against them tonight, projecting him for 7.06 strikeouts.
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Trevor Story OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-105)
Our lone batter prop for Friday night is Trevor Story. He is projected for more fantasy points than any other hitter, and his matchup with southpaw Wei-Yin Chen could be one you can take advantage of the sportsbooks with as well.
Story has been on fire in the month of June, batting 26-for-79 (.329) with 5 home runs, 17 RBI, and 13 runs scored. Story has a .436 wOBA and .356 isolated power against left-handed pitching this season, and he's averaging a run, hit, or RBI once every 1.46 plate appearances against southpaws. For Friday, our models project Story for a combined 3.85 runs, hits, and RBI.
