FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 9/26/21
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our projections and batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. We'll be focusing exclusively on the main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
The lowest implied total on the slate -- 3.07 -- belongs to the Miami Marlins, who will see Shane Baz ($6,900 on FanDuel). A top prospect and former first-round pick, Baz looked the part in his MLB debut, punching out five in five innings against the high-octane Toronto Blue Jays. But I'll mostly steer clear of Baz today despite the great matchup with Miami, because the Tampa Bay Rays capped him at 65 pitches in said debut. Unless he gets a longer leash, Baz is unlikely to be able to generate enough FanDuel points.
I'm focused on Lucas Giolito ($9,500), Alek Manoah ($9,600) and Freddy Peralta ($9,400) -- particularly Giolito and Peralta.
Peralta offers the strikeout upside we crave, sporting a 34.1% strikeout rate and 14.3% swinging-strike rate, and his matchup with the New York Mets is a fairly neutral one. Pitch count had been a negative recently for Peralta, but he got up to 96 pitches last time out. New York is showing a 3.57 implied total, and our algorithm pegs Peralta to score a slate-leading 35.2 FanDuel points.
Giolito is taking on the Cleveland Indians. For the year, Cleveland sits 22nd in wOBA (.306) with the 11th-highest strikeout rate (23.8%). Giolito has pitched to a 3.68 SIERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 15.5% swinging-strike rate. He's limiting hitters to a .276 wOBA in the second half. The Indians have a 3.62 implied total, and we project Giolito for 34.8 FanDuel points.
Manoah has shown good upside, posting a 26.6% strikeout rate. He's really been on point of late, fanning 17 over 14 innings of two-run ball across his last two starts. The Minnesota Twins aren't an easy matchup, but their implied total of 3.88 isn't imposing. Our model forecasts Mahoah for 30.5 FanDuel points.
Carlos Carrasco ($7,000) is a decent value option. After missing much of the campaign due to injury, Carrasco has found his footing of late, giving up two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. The punchouts haven't been there -- or at least at the level we'd like -- but a date with the Milwaukee Brewers can help in that department. Milwaukee holds the 10th-highest strikeout rate (23.9%) this season.
Stacks to Target
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays will see Griffin Jax, the owner of a 5.04 SIERA. Homers have been a huge issue for Jax (2.63 per nine), and hitters from both sides of the plate have rocked him. The Jays' 5.12 implied total checks in third on the slate.
Toronto has a plethora of stacking options, as you know. I won't run through the obvious guys, but I will give a shout to value lefties Jake Lamb ($2,200) and Corey Dickerson ($2,300). They're a low-salary way to get a piece of the Jays, who have six bats salaried at $3,600 or higher.
Cincinnati Reds
Josh Rogers has just a 16.2% strikeout rate In his brief MLB stint in 2021, and that's actually up from the lowly 15.6% strikeout rate he registered in 73 innings in Triple-A this campaign. It's probably not going to go well for him at Great American Ball Park, and the Cincinnati Reds have been handed a 5.35 implied total, the slate's second-highest.
The Reds figure to be righty-heavy against the southpaw, and Nick Castellanos ($3,800) is the main attraction. Castellanos has mashed his way to a .387 wOBA overall and has a 45.4% hard-hit rate against left-handers.
Fellow rightes Jonathan India ($3,500), Kyle Farmer ($3,300), Eugenio Suarez ($2,900) and Tyler Stephenson ($2,500) should be in the lineup. If Aristides Aquino ($2,200) starts, I'll be overweight on him as he has a 52.8% fly-ball rate and five jacks in 92 plate appearances with the platoon advantage.
St. Louis Cardinals
Keegan Thompson -- not to be confused with SNL legend Kenan Thompson -- has the tall task of facing the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals. The Red Birds can't lose right now and have an MLB-best .364 wOBA over the last 14 days. Thompson has struggled to a 4.91 SIERA, and left-handers have put up a .353 wOBA and 2.19 jacks per nine against him.
The lone negative with St. Louis is they are a mostly right-handed lineup outside of Tommy Edman ($3,300), who should be leading off, and then one of Dylan Carlson ($3,100) or Lars Nootbaar ($2,200) will likely be in there. They'll be core plays for me.
After that, we basically have to use righties, but that's OK with how well the Cards are swinging it. Tyler O'Neill ($3,800), Nolan Arenado ($3,800) and Paul Goldschmidt ($4,300) are elite options if you have the salary. O'Neill is stupid-hot right now, posting a .438 wOBA with 11 taters in September.
