MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 5/9/23: Will Patrick Corbin Spoil the Under in San Francisco?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Dodgers ML (-122)
Though it's close, the Dodgers might have a tiny advantage in key spots tonight.
Oddly, L.A. can't hit lefties. Their .669 OPS is the sixth-worst mark in the league against southpaws, but Eric Lauer could help. Lauer's 5.84 expected ERA (xERA) is ugly, and he's ceded 1.76 HR/9 this year. Plus, this isn't a lineup we should expect to stay down in any split for long.
Milwaukee has the 11th-best OPS (.742) against right-handed pitching, and they draw what most will consider the Dodgers' worst pitcher, Noah Syndergaard. However, Syndergaard's 6.32 ERA might be a tad unlucky given identical 4.67 clips in skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and xERA. Compared to Lauer, he's ceding just 1.44 HR/9 to this point.
As this game gets into the bullpens, L.A.'s reliever xFIP (4.39) has also been a tad lower than Milwaukee's (4.47), too.
Off last night's loss, I'm expecting the Dodgers to rebound on Tuesday.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
Angels -1.5 (+146)
This +146 price feels like a gift with Shohei Ohtani on the mound.
Ohtani has been every bit as good as his 2.54 ERA would suggest. His xERA is just 2.93, and he's holding a mammoth 38.6% strikeout rate. It's also worth noting that this isn't the traditional tough matchup against Houston given the Astros' current form. The Astros' 83 wRC+ against righties this year is the seventh-worst mark in baseball.
Of course, as these odds would indicate, the Angels aren't facing a slouch, either. Framber Valdez has been pretty solid in his own right with a 2.67 ERA. But his xERA is 4.21, and he's allowed a hard-hit ball on 46.8% of the ones put into play. That elevated mark is a bit scary against an L.A. offense with the fourth-highest wRC+ against left-handed pitching (125).
With advantages in both facets tonight, the Halos are in a great spot for a statement win.
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
Under 8.5 (-118)
This seems like the best way to back a spirited effort from Patrick Corbin tonight.
We don't get too many of those considering Corbin's ugly 5.17 ERA, but his 4.57 SIERA actually isn't that bad. He's also got a modest 9.9% swinging-strike rate, and this matchup should help boost his rate of punchouts. The Giants have a measly 81 wRC+ against lefties this year, and they've struck out at the second-highest rate in the split (29.6%).
That's why I feel like the runline is a bit of a trap despite the fact I'm expecting a stellar effort from Logan Webb. Webb's 3.07 SIERA is outstanding, and he's amassed his usual worm-killing 57.9% groundball rate. We also know the Nationals are no offensive juggernaut, holding the second-lowest OPS (.641) against right-handed pitching.
I don't trust the Giants' offense against a lefty, but if Webb deals, this mark should still be in minimal danger even if Corbin flounders. It only helps that Corbin might raise some eyebrows in a sublime matchup.
