The Best Bets to Lead the NFL in Receiving Yards Based on numberFire's Projections
Last season, Antonio Brown led the league in receiving yards with 1,533 yards. Brown has led the NFL in receiving yards two of the past four seasons and is one of four active players to lead the league in receiving yards. The other active receivers are T.Y. Hilton, Julio Jones, and Josh Gordon.
Unsurprisingly, Brown is +200 on Betfair, making him the favorite to lead the league in receiving this season. But is betting on Brown at those odds really worth it? Let's take a look at their odds.
| Wide Receiver/Tight End | Betfair Odds |
|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | +200 |
| Julio Jones | +500 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | +800 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | +1200 |
| Keenan Allen | +1200 |
| Adam Thielen | +1400 |
| T.Y. Hilton | +1400 |
| Michael Thomas | +1600 |
| A.J. Green | +2000 |
| Mike Evans | +2000 |
| Doug Baldwin | +4000 |
| Davante Adams | +4000 |
| Travis Kelce | +5000 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | +5000 |
| Josh Gordon | +5000 |
| Jarvis Landry | +5000 |
| Alshon Jeffery | +6600 |
| Amari Cooper | +6600 |
| Marquise Goodwin | +6600 |
| Stefon Diggs | +6600 |
| Corey Davis | +6600 |
| Tyreek Hill | +6600 |
| Brandin Cooks | +8000 |
| Golden Tate | +8000 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | +8000 |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | +8000 |
| Cooper Kupp | +10000 |
| Sammy Watkins | +10000 |
| Rob Gronkowski | +10000 |
| Robert Woods | +10000 |
| Demaryius Thomas | +10000 |
| Pierre Garcon | +10000 |
| Chris Hogan | +10000 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | +10000 |
| Zach Ertz | +10000 |
| Julian Edelman | +10000 |
| Allen Robinson | +10000 |
| Jordy Nelson | +15000 |
| John Ross | +15000 |
| Kenny Stills | +15000 |
| Devin Funchess | +20000 |
| Greg Olsen | +20000 |
| Robby Anderson | +20000 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | +30000 |
| Desean Jackson | +30000 |
Now that we know the odds, which players look like possible values? Let's check out numberFire's season-long projections to see who stands out. Betfair has odds listed for both wide receivers and a few tight ends. Three of the top six favorites have led the league in receiving yards. Gordon's odds are worse because of the uncertainty surrounding his playing status.
The Data
This table is sorted by our receiving yards projections, and Jones is projected to lead the league in that category.
| Wide Receiver/Tight End | Betfair Odds | numberFire Projections for Receiving Yards |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | +500 | 1,542 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | +1200 | 1,499 |
| Antonio Brown | +200 | 1,477 |
| Michael Thomas | +1600 | 1,369 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | +800 | 1,351 |
| Mike Evans | +2000 | 1,324 |
| Keenan Allen | +1200 | 1,281 |
| A.J. Green | +2000 | 1,212 |
| Doug Baldwin | +4000 | 1,187 |
| Davante Adams | +4000 | 1,147 |
| Adam Thielen | +1400 | 1,132 |
| Amari Cooper | +6600 | 1,089 |
| T.Y. Hilton | +1400 | 1,070 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | +8000 | 1,055 |
| Demaryius Thomas | +10000 | 1,045 |
| Allen Robinson | +10000 | 1,032 |
| Stefon Diggs | +6600 | 1,030 |
| Golden Tate | +8000 | 1,026 |
| Rob Gronkowski | +10000 | 1,010 |
| Tyreek Hill | +6600 | 1,008 |
| Travis Kelce | +5000 | 988 |
| Brandin Cooks | +8000 | 976 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | +5000 | 971 |
| Sammy Watkins | +10000 | 970 |
| Josh Gordon | +5000 | 968 |
| Pierre Garcon | +10000 | 944 |
| Jarvis Landry | +5000 | 921 |
| Zach Ertz | +10000 | 897 |
| Robby Anderson | +20000 | 884 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | +10000 | 875 |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | +8000 | 862 |
| Alshon Jeffery | +6600 | 859 |
| Devin Funchess | +20000 | 858 |
| Kenny Stills | +15000 | 848 |
| Chris Hogan | +10000 | 845 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | +30000 | 829 |
| Corey Davis | +6600 | 824 |
| Robert Woods | +10000 | 822 |
| Greg Olsen | +20000 | 804 |
| Marquise Goodwin | +6600 | 802 |
| Cooper Kupp | +10000 | 789 |
| Desean Jackson | +30000 | 748 |
| Jordy Nelson | +15000 | 724 |
| Julian Edelman | +10000 | 696 |
| John Ross | +15000 | 594 |
The Most Valuable Value
Among receivers projected to finish in the top ten in receiving yards, Davante Adams stands out as a value at 40-1 odds. Aaron Rodgers' number one target will be Adams. Last season, Adams was targeted on 19.3% of passes from Rodgers, which led the Packers according to The Quant Edge.
Jordy Nelson has since joined Gruden's Retirement Castle in Oakland, which leaves another 14.7% of targets open for the taking.
Since Rodgers began starting games in 2008, he has helped ten wideouts reach 1,000 or more receiving yards. While Adams has never surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in a season, he has also never been the top target in Green Bay's offense with Rodgers running the show. Adams had 885 yards in 14 games last season, and half of those came with Brett Hundley under center.
After winning just seven games in an injury-marred 2017 season, the Packers are projected to win 10 games this season on Betfair. Rodgers has averaged more passing yards per game in wins over his career according to the Rotoviz Game Splits App.
The implied odds of winning a +4000 bet are just 2.44%, but our projections have Adams accruing 1,147 yards. That ranks tenth among all projected wide receivers and tight ends.
Other Values and Longshots
Our projections like Amari Cooper to rack up 1,089 receiving yards, which would rank 12th among receivers. Getting a projected top-12 wideout at 66-1 odds is intriguing. The NFL betting market is a "what have you done for me lately" kind of market. Cooper endured an abysmal 2017 season, with quarterback Derek Carr playing injured for much of it. But Cooper finished 8th in receiving yards in 2016, and 20th in his rookie season in 2015.
The upside is there in the Raiders' offense with the loss of Michael Crabtree. If Cooper can return to his 2016 form with a healthy QB, those 66-1 odds are looking mighty fine.
The greatest tight end of all-time, Rob Gronkowski, is 100-1 to lead the league in receiving. He is playing with the greatest quarterback of all-time, Tom Brady. For comparison's sake, the Browns are 100-1 to win the Super Bowl this season. You have to like Gronk's odds more. Gronk finished tenth in receiving yards last season and only played in 14 games. He's well worth the risk if he can stay healthy.
