NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 1/6/22
For the first time in a long time, we have a full slate of games to look forward to tonight, with an 11-game slate scheduled. Games stretch across the country, which means you can get non-stop action for almost six straight hours if you play your cards right. Favorites have been on a tear, winning nine of the past 10 games over the last couple of days. We're betting that trend reverses on Thursday night, with several underdogs highlighted in our projections.
These are the plays we're looking at from our daily projections!
Buffalo Sabres vs. San Jose Sharks
Sabres moneyline (+100): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Sabres +1.5 (-265): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
After four days off, the Buffalo Sabres get back to action against the San Jose Sharks on Thursday night. Buffalo's metrics have bottomed out since returning action, but they should progress against a Sharks team that is out of their depths on the road.
San Jose has played two road games since returning to action, and both contests have been sub-optimal. The Sharks have been out-possessed, out-shot, and out-chanced in scoring opportunities in both games. Cumulatively, the Sharks have posted an expected goals-for percentage of 37.8% at five-on-five across those games.
The Sabres may have struggled since returning to action, but they've been much better on home ice this season than on the road. Buffalo has an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in four of their past six home games, a span in which they have collected only one win. They are in a good position to extend their improved play against a Sharks team that has been hapless on the road.
The Sharks have allowed 20 goals over their past three games, setting up the Sabres for an improved effort on Thursday night. Based on our projections, there's an advantage in backing Buffalo on the puck line and moneyline, which we rate as two- and three-star plays, respectively.
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Flyers moneyline (+198): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The battle of Pennsylvania rages on Thursday when the Philadelphia Flyers host the Pittsburgh Penguins on the second night of their back-to-back. Pittsburgh has struggled under these circumstances throughout the season, leaving an edge in backing the home team.
The Pens have dropped two of three games on the second night of a back-to-back, giving up six goals in both losses. Goaltending issues last night could lead to a similar result tonight, as Tristan Jarry had to come on in relief of Casey DeSmith, meaning neither goalie will be rested for this contest.
Those issues could allow the Flyers' offense to improve off of their recent strong showings, as they've attempted 10 or more high-danger chances at five-on-five in three straight games and six of their past nine, scoring three or more goals in six of those contests.
The betting market has overreacted to the Penguins' chances tonight. The Flyers are currently priced as +198 underdogs, which comes with a 33.6% implied probability. Based on our projections, that leaves an edge in backing Philadelphia on home-ice. We rate the Flyers moneyline wager as a one-star play.
