UFC Vegas 72: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry within the sports world, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action each and every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. No matter your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout here.

Without further delay, let's break down this week's event, which is UFC Vegas 72: Song vs. Simon, taking place at the UFC Apex facility on Saturday.

Jamie-Lyn Horth (-154) vs. Hailey Cowan (+126)

Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

A UFC fighter rarely gets signed off Dana White's Contender Series for a decision win, and Hailey Cowan isn't making very good on being the rare exception.

Cowan has had two fights canceled to this point, and it was a bit of a mystery she got the nod to begin with. Cowan landed just 1.72 significant strikes per minute on the show with forgettable 42% accuracy. She also landed a takedown on just one attempt.

I had no idea what to expect in a debut before the canceled fights, and now Jamie-Lyn Horth adds another layer of uncertainty by making her promotional debut. Horth, the top-ranked unaffiliated Canadian at women's 135 before this official start, has secured an early finish in all five starts -- including her one and only appearance with LFA.

This fight is -220 to see over 2.5 rounds. Other than a flimsy projection that's showing a touch of value on the "under" thanks to Horth's 100% pro finishing rate, this isn't the spot to fire anything off with confidence.

Betting Verdict: I won't even fire at under 2.5 rounds despite a smidge of value showing, which is there due to Horth's finishing rate. These are two total unknowns.

DFS Verdict: Overwhelmingly, this grappling-heavy environment seems like one to avoid. If there is upside, it's likely from Horth (100% finishing rate) as Cowan's toughest opponent to date.

Journey Newson (-188) vs. Marcus McGhee (+152)

Catchweight (140 pounds)

This one become about accepting or rejecting Journey Newson after Brian Kelleher pulled out of this fight on Wednesday. LFA bantamweight Marcus McGhee will step in on short notice.

Admittedly, Newson's not my favorite. He's averaged fewer than three significant strikes per minute with UFC thus far, but his +0.34 SSR and 66% striking defense were good enough to eke out multiple wins with the promotion at this stage.

McGhee is a total unknown coming from MMA Lab in Arizona, training with UFC veterans like Kyler Phillips and Jared Cannonier. It doesn't mean much to be around success, but it's a quality gym. A vast majority of McGhee's available footage comes at distance, and his record -- with zero wins by submission -- backs that up.

With just a 43% takedown defense, Newson wouldn't have signed on the dotted line to face a grappler when needing a win badly. In fact, Newson has shown 0.65 takedowns per 15 minutes and offered a submission attempt. It's a plausible path to dominate this fight if McGhee is lost there.

A fluke knockout is always possible, but I won't be the guy to predict one from McGhee facing -- by far -- his hardest opponent yet and doing so on three days' notice.

Betting Verdict: There is too much unknown with McGhee to target a specific method of victory or lay this heavy moneyline. It's just not my process.

DFS Verdict: Newson at $20 has every conceivable advantage in experience, talent, and modest metrics on paper. However, averaging just 2.02 FanDuel points per minute (excl. bonuses), there hasn't been justification to force him into an MVP slot despite being a heavy favorite.

Stephanie Egger (-300) vs. Irina Alekseeva (+235)

Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

The UFC career of Stephanie Egger has been an odd one, and I'd expect this next chapter will be, too.

Most of Egger's professional background is in judo, and she's dominated women in UFC who weren't ready for that. She easily finished Shanna Young, Ailin Perez, and Jessica-Rose Clark (combined 5-9 UFC) as less adept grapplers, but those with jiu-jitsu or wrestling skills -- such as Tracy Cortez and Mayra Bueno Silva -- handed her lopsided Ls.

Irina Alekseeva is much more of a traditional, well-rounded MMA fighter. Dubbed "Russian Ronda," her primary offense is grappling, just like former divisional champion Ronda Rousey. Alekseeva last competed in North America's second-largest MMA promotion, Bellator, and earned a victory by unanimous decision. Alekseeva mixed her wrestling with her striking in that one.

The price on Egger's moneyline here is insanity given her known limitations when striking (+0.08 SSR), and she's defended takedowns at just a 44% clip due to her inexperience with more traditional MMA wrestling.

Alekseeva can do both of those in a division that regularly spits out upsets. I wouldn't be shocked by another here.

Betting Verdict: Alekseeva's history with a bonafide promotion against modest competition leads me to believe she can compete here. I've taken a half-unit flier at +235.

DFS Verdict: Egger's 100% finishing rate in UFC makes her a scary fade if this leans her direction, but this fight is -146 to go over 2.5 rounds, and Alekseeva has arrows in her direction. I'd rather roster the underdog at $9.

Charles Johnson (-144) vs. Cody Durden (+128)

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)

There's sharp money coming in on Cody Durden, but I really don't see the appeal.

Outside of an overwhelmed, short-notice debut against Mohammed Mokaev, Charles Johnson has defended takedowns well. He's defended 9 of the last 13 that he's faced, which isn't a surprise for a dude that towers over the rest of this division.

Durden (4.17 takedowns per 15) has needed to get that going to win. He's landed at least four takedowns in every UFC win short of a quick run-in with the thin-chinned JP Buys (0-3 UFC). Durden's +0.00 SSR and 49% striking defense largely leave him as a sitting duck on his feet.

As a wrestler, Cody has also just attempted one submission in six fights. That leaves a lot of time for the more powerful Johnson (+0.71 SSR) to find a standing knockout or a ground-and-pound finish -- like the one he delivered to Jimmy Flick.

Johnson has landed at least 47% of his shots in all four UFC bouts. If Johnson's grappling issues were unmanageable, I'd sooner give Durden a chance. I can't imagine Cody's limited skillset moving to four wins in five fights when he's been embarrassed so emphatically previously.

Betting Verdict: Johnson hasn't secured a standing knockout yet in UFC but had two straight in LFA before transitioning over. With Durden's poor defense, I love his moneyline and Johnson by KO/TKO (+380).

DFS Verdict: Not a great environment despite my bullish leanings toward Johnson on the feet. Over 2.5 Rounds is -225. It likely means MVP is off the table, but Johnson could be a sneaky tournament play at $16.

Martin Buday (-110) vs. Jake Collier (-110)

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

This heavyweight pick'em hasn't budged all week, but I feel tremendously confident in picking Martin Buday when I've been one of his largest cynics.

Buday has a bad habit of ugly clinch battles against the fence, and he got walloped with a -52 striking differential by Lukasz Brzeski (0-2 UFC) in his last bout. However, I have a high opinion of Brzeski (+1.76 SSR), and Buday's mutual opponent with Jake Collier provides hope.

Buday had Chris Barnett on the ropes in his first UFC bout until an inadvertent elbow sent the fight to the judges prematurely, but he still easily won via unanimous decision. Barnett knocked out Collier in the second round last year.

Styles make fights, so that doesn't guarantee a Buday win, but Collier, a former 185-pounder with UFC, remains a volatile wager. He's more athletic than plenty of his opponents, but the extra weight often compromises his cardio, and his only two wins at heavyweight have come over foes that have a 2-8 record since the start of 2021.

Buday, having never been professionally finished, cuts to 265 pounds. The one-inch height discrepancy doesn't tell the story of the massive gap in power and size. If Collier has a speed advantage at distance, Buday likely swallows him against the cage anyway.

Betting Verdict: With even odds, I see value in Buday. This is a projected striking match, and Buday's striking accuracy (48%) and defense (55%) are both considerably higher.

DFS Verdict: Over 2.5 Rounds is -134 here, so this isn't a world-class environment, either. I'd still prefer Buday -- who has never been finished -- at $15 over the volatile Collier.

Josh Quinlan (-184) vs. Trey Waters (+148)

Welterweight (170 pounds)

A prior edition of my process might have gotten this horribly wrong, but this improved handicap might still be wrong.

Josh Quinlan is the type of fighter my analytical approach would heavily favor. Quinlan's card-best +4.43 SSR has come with an 80% striking defense, which would be a guy who's untouchable in an extended sample. However, this sample totals fewer than three minutes of octagon time.

That's why he's no steal at -188. Trey Waters is the late-notice opponent, but he's actually got some tangible UFC experience. He fought on Dana White's Contender Series against undefeated UFC winner Gabriel Bonfim, and he actually did pretty well. Waters had a 61% striking defense before a perilous guillotine choke attempt that resulted in him getting submitted himself.

At 6'5", Waters is a generational athletic freak at this weight class. We know basically nothing about these two, but Quinlan's lone path to victory thus far has been knocking out guys, and Waters has never felt that fate. Plus, Quinlan's grappling is totally untested at this level, and Waters willingly went into those waters with Bonfim -- pun intended.

Here's our first highly volatile fight of the evening with under 1.5 rounds at -130. Though a Quinlan knockout is on the table, I've adjusted the fight to a coinflip with all of the uncertainty and see some value in Waters.

Betting Verdict: Even though I lean toward Waters being a value at this number, I have no interest in this betting experience. The -130 price is a bit aggressive on an early finish given this fight is on a week's notice and could have a feeling-out process.

DFS Verdict: Quinlan, with gaudy counting stats and a history of KOs, should be overwhelmingly popular at $19. Waters, at an $11 salary, has the potential to finish this one early, too.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-188) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+152)

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Marcos Rogerio de Lima's heavyweight career is pretty underrated.

He's had a positive striking differential in all eight fights, and his only true loss was when Alexander Romanov swallowed him whole with wrestling and grappling. The others were a bad split-decision loss to Blagoy Ivanov, and he got caught in a choke after hurting Stefan Struve early.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta, never having attempted a UFC takedown, won't be able to replicate Romanov or Struve's path. However, "Salsa Boy," to his credit, has demolished Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman in his first two UFC starts. The only problem is those guys are a combined 5-16 in UFC.

Coming off a submission win and sporting a stellar 50% takedown accuracy, Rogerio de Lima could win this fight with total control via his wrestling. That's what he did to Mo Greene. I am not discounting "Pezao" to win this on the feet, though.

At the end of the day, Sherman and Vanderaa have been finished in 6 of their 16 losses. Cortes-Acosta never threatened to get either out of there. It would be a shocking result if he were to now knock out one of the division's most durable stalwarts.

Betting Verdict: I've got Rogerio de Lima closer to a -300 favorite, so his -188 moneyline is a value if you don't mind the juice. On the hypothesis that WCA can't grapple, I also like Rogerio de Lima by Submission (+550), too.

DFS Verdict: Pezao scored just 46.4 FanDuel points in his dominant win over Greene. He's not always the most aggressive grappler, but there's enough early-finish upside to consider him for MVP at $21.

Julian Erosa (-142) vs. Fernando Padilla (+116)

Men's Featherweight (145 pounds)

Francisco Padilla is the fourth and final newcomer on this card, and he's on the main card for a reason.

Despite sitting since May 2021 due to injuries and travel issues, this 26-year-old already has an insane amount of experience on his resume. The native of Mexico submitted UFC winner Darrick Minner and went the distance with ranked featherweight Dan Ige before he was even legally allowed to have a beer in the U.S.

He's never been finished in 18 pro fights, which should make this bout with Julian Erosa a start-to-finish banger. Erosa has clearly defined his floor and ceiling at this point.

As a starting point, he's overwhelmed some fighters with 1.48 takedowns per 15, and he's closed the show with a pair of submission wins since returning to UFC in 2021. Erosa's issues have come defending strikes. While he lands a solid 48% of the time, he's also defended at the same 48% clip, which is below the divisional average.

Erosa's chin is his biggest anecdotal issue in my eyes. He's been dropped three times in his last five bouts. Padilla is a long, strong featherweight who has given Erosa -- usually the long one -- issues. "Juicy J" is just 1-2 in UFC when not having a reach advantage, and he was finished in both losses.

Betting Verdict: Erosa's durability at -150 isn't worth a sweat, but I likely won't fire at Padilla. Both of these guys have pro finishing rates north of 80%, so I'm right in line with under 2.5 rounds at -158, too.

DFS Verdict: Responsible tournament players will want dual-sided exposure to this fight, but Padilla at $14 will be my primary target. There's knockout upside for a powerful guy who has been waiting 30 months for a fight.

Rodolfo Vieira (-245) vs. Cody Brundage (+194)

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Rodolfo Vieira is a decorated jiu-jitsu champion and has been in the UFC since 2019, but we still know very little about him.

Vieira's three UFC wins have come over competition that is a combined 4-11 with the promotion. He was mopped in the striking battle by both Chris Curtis and Anthony Hernandez, and concerningly, he landed just 4 of 30 total takedown attempts against those two.

Though his striking has improved, the question will be whether he can take down Cody Brundage easily. Brundage has had his own issues in the striking department, but he's the more well-rounded MMA fighter and still comes from a traditional grappling base.

On short notice, Brundage defended 11 of Nick Maximov's 15 takedown attempts, and Maximov (45% takedown accuracy) is a much better wrestler than Vieira (27%).

Brundage has also never been professionally submitted. He brings a similar skillset to what Hernandez brought, and while Vieira did have some initial success with his grappling, his inability to finish Hernandez led to an ugly, tired finish.

Betting Verdict: In a fight that's basically 50/50 to see more than eight minutes, Brundage is +330 to win inside the distance (ITD). That seems insane for the better striker who owns a UFC finish in each variety.

DFS Verdict: The early finish potential is live, but Brundage getting submitted would be a first. We've seen Vieira tired, knocked down, and submitted. Cody at $9 is one of my favorite value plays on the slate.

Caio Borralho (-385) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+290)

Middleweight (185 pounds)

By betting odds and stylistically, this is the most lopsided fight on the card.

Michal Oleksiejczuk is coming off a knockout and has sizable power (2.01% knockdown rate), but it's his lone prayer against Caio Borralho, who hasn't been as much as wobbled behind his excellent 60% striking defense.

Oleksiejczuk defends takedowns at just a 43% clip while Borralho has an absurd 75% takedown accuracy and has spent at least five minutes in control of every UFC fight.

Though Borralho's submission rate isn't super high (0.50 attempts per 15), this is the matchup where it could come alive. Michal has been submitted in two of his three UFC setbacks.

With under 2.5 rounds sitting at -158, Borralho might be in line for his first win via an early finish. If that doesn't happen, it's likely Oleksiejczuk found one of his own.

Betting Verdict: Despite never securing a submission with UFC, Borrahlo by Submission (+145) is actually showing value in my numbers. I've got it over 50.0% likely.

DFS Verdict: Borrahlo at $23 has an extraordinary salary with a path to failure via inactive grappling, but this is such a delightful matchup that I've got to put him in the MVP mix.

Ricky Simon (-128) vs. Song Yadong (+104)

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

I genuinely have no strong conviction about who wins this fight, which is extremely exciting as a fan.

Ricky Simon is 9-2 with UFC, and his only two losses were a tight decision to Rob Font and a knockout loss -- quickly -- to divisional legend Urijah Faber in 2019. Simon is a powerful wrestler with seemingly endless energy, averaging 6.55 takedowns on excellent 52% accuracy. He even trumped Merab Dvalishvili, the wrestling standard in the division, when the two met in 2018.

This weekend, Simon can exact revenge on Faber's star pupil, Song Yadong. Yadong prefers to work on his feet behind a +0.62 SSR and a modest-for-the-division 0.91% knockdown rate.

This fight really comes down to Yadong's 71% takedown defense, which is a strong mark in a vacuum. He certainly juiced that by defending 18 of 19 attempts from Cory Sandhagen last time out, but Sandhagen (21% takedown accuracy) can't hold a candle to Simon in that dimension.

In Yadong's other two UFC appearances where he didn't win, he ceded three of five takedown attempts to Kyler Phillips, and Cody Stamann landed 5 takedowns on 12 attempts. With 25 minutes to work, Simon could potentially close in on 10 takedowns if Yadong's defense hasn't improved.

Personally, I'm just not concerned about Yadong's overrated power enough to think Simon doesn't enforce his will with his wrestling. Plus, outside of a one-off against Faber, Simon's striking defense (64%) and durability have both been excellent.

Betting Verdict: If my stuff sees a smidge of value on Simon, it's probably the right side. Song's 71% takedown defense is likely an overestimation of his true skill in that department.

DFS Verdict: Yadong's salary is low enough to consider a stack here with this fight a modest +140 to go the full distance, but Simon at $20 will be the priority. He boasts a hefty floor with his style if he gets takedowns early and often.