UFC Vegas 77: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry within the sports world, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC Vegas 77: Holm vs. Bueno Silva, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday.

Ailin Perez vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith

Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

This one really does set the tone for 2023's weakest card to date.

Ailin Perez flunked out of her UFC debut with Stephanie Egger, and that's not great news. Egger's three UFC wins (including Perez) are just 5-10 overall with the promotion. If you want longevity at women's 135, clearing Egger's one-trick-pony, judo-heavy style seems to be a must.

Longevity is about all Ashlee Evans-Smith seems to have in her direction for her entering this one. Evans-Smith's last two fights resulted in a hideous -97 striking differential, but at the very least, they came against a pair of ranked UFC fighters (Norma Dumont and Andrea Lee).

Perez's resumé is uglier the deeper you look. "Fiona" has just one opponent on her record with a winning mark outside of UFC, and that fighter is just 8-5 as a pro regionally. Perez won over many UFC fans with her pre-debut antics, but she might just not be able to fight at this level whatsoever.

Evans-Smith is a three-time UFC winner, and she's got eight total fights with the promotion. Her experience in a ridiculously low-level fight is appealing as the underdog.

Betting Verdict: Evans-Smith's defeats were facing high-level competition, so I might even see enough value here to take the plunge on her moneyline (+164). Perez's valuation is too high if it's any sort of expectation to win at the UFC level.

DFS Verdict: On an iffy card for value plays, this is a complete 'dog-or-pass situation with Evans-Smith ($12). This fight is -192 to go over 2.5 rounds, so passing could be just fine.

Alexander Munoz vs. Carl Deaton III

Lightweight (155 pounds)

These are the sketchiest odds on the entire card.

Alexander Munoz lost a split decision with Luis Pena (4-3) in his last fight back in 2021, but he loses equity when it was up from Pena's organic featherweight class. Since then, the Team Alpha Male product has battled injuries, and his uninspiring -1.53 SSR shows how much he's struggled to dictate his two bouts thus far.

On the other side, Carl Deaton III was last-minute fodder for Joe Solecki earlier this year, so this is his first real shot with the promotion. Also at 33 years old, Deaton had 22 regional fights before his debut, and those bouts do include some measuring sticks. He's beaten former UFC winner Justin Jaynes and lost a competitive decision to newly-minted UFC winner Chepe Mariscal.

Munoz has the precarious profile of a ground fighter with just one career win via submission to Deaton's nine. That's a red flag as to why these odds are close than you'd think, and Munoz's terrible striking data speaks for itself.

In 31 combined pro fights, these two have been finished just three times. This fight should have length to it, but this is another one where it's either the underdog or nothing for me.

Betting Verdict: If these odds don't shift with the love toward Munoz's moneyline, I'll have to take the plunge. Deaton's resumé isn't glowing, but it's also foolish to count him out without tangible, true UFC success from the favorite.

DFS Verdict: In terms of finishing upside, Deaton's pro finishing rate (70.6%) towers over Munoz's (50.0%). You could do worse at a $13 salary.

Azat Maksum vs. Tyson Nam

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)

Though yet to record a "bad loss" on his UFC record, Tyson Nam's style isn't one that's successful very often.

Nam averages just 3.49 significant strikes per minute with 39% accuracy as an inefficient counter-puncher. As a one-dimensional striker, his 100% takedown defense has given him a chance, but Bruno "Bulldog" Silva showed in his last fight how easy it is to submit him if he's knocked down or slips.

Nearing 40 years old, Nam appears to be fodder for newcomer Azat Maksum from Kazakhstan. The 28-year-old comes over with a 16-0 professional record and decent experience, which is reminiscent of his countryman Shavkat Rakhmonov at welterweight. Shavkat has won five in a row since making the leap to UFC.

Nam's three UFC wins have been swift or indecisive knockouts, totaling just a +4 striking differential across them. If Maksum isn't finished, he's almost certainly the better grappler, and Nam's usual size advantage at flyweight is toast in this one. Maksum will have an inch of height with what appears to be a comparable reach on film.

Maksum is the second-largest favorite on the card. To me, Nam's profile isn't exciting enough to doubt the hype.

Betting Verdict: I won't be leaping to back a -400 favorite without concrete data, but under 2.5 rounds (-144) is a really interesting target here. It encompasses Nam's one path to win (a quick knockout) and Maksum's projected physical dominance.

DFS Verdict: Nam hadn't been finished in UFC before his last bout, so I can't call Maksum ($22) a standout MVP candidate, but he's an option with -130 odds to win inside the full distance.

Evan Elder vs. Genaro Valdez

Lightweight (155 pounds)

It is so hard to fathom a competitive Genaro Valdez effort at this stage, but we might still get one.

Valdez has landed less than 31% of his significant strikes in both appearances, getting dropped four times with a -68 striking differential. This is yet another step back in competition, which is well overdue. His first two UFC foes have a combined seven UFC wins.

Evan Elder's superior statistical profile is intriguing when the Kill Cliff FC team member has only one fight at lightweight. It was a competitive loss to Nazim Sadykhov in a fight where, if the doctor didn't step in due to a cut, would have been all over the place on the scorecards.

Including a late-notice debut at welterweight, Elder has defended just one of six takedowns faced, and I think that's Valdez's path. Valdez has actually mustered 2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44% accuracy to this point.

Elder's odds are total insanity. His striking defense (43%) is worse than Valdez's (47%) at this stage, and he's accomplished zero of note. I'd also favor him to win, but this is a fight that could be all over the map in terms of the final result.

Betting Verdict: Valdez's increased durability in his last fight (to go the distance) makes him a tolerable bet at +235. I've got this far, far closer to a pick 'em.

DFS Verdict: Here's where you could further justify Elder ($21), which I might end up doing just to cover all my bases on this fight. Valdez has surrendered an average of 140.1 FanDuel points (!) in two bouts, but Elder has also surrendered at least 94.0 points in both of his.

Melquizael Costa vs. Austin Lingo

Men's Featherweight (145 pounds)

I'm biased for a good reason here. Melquizael Costa comes from Charles Oliveria and Elves Brener's Chute Boxe camp in Brazil, and Austin Lingo comes from Fortis MMA in Dallas, which produced the dud we saw from Brandon Moreno last Saturday.

This is Costa's debut in his natural weight class; he used an outmatched lightweight bout against Thiago Moises to earn it. His stats, after spending most of that bout under the formerly ranked lightweight, aren't ideal, but it was encouraging he did hold the striking edge over an established 155-pounder.

Despite his camp, Lingo is no pushover. His 58% striking defense and 78% takedown defense are both pretty solid, but he hasn't wrestled himself to this point, and a 40% striking accuracy is really poor. He's only had a positive striking differential in one UFC bout.

This line might be a tiny bit wide, but Costa is the more well-rounded guy. Lingo's striking hasn't been strong enough to overcome that, and this is his first matchup with a grappling threat since his UFC debut -- a lopsided loss where he ceded six takedowns.

Betting Verdict: Lingo badly struggled grappling in his debut, so Costa's submission prop (+500) is probably how I'd back him from this perspective. I'm right in line with over 2.5 rounds (-122).

DFS Verdict: This is the spot where I'd take a responsible dart at Melky, who does carry finishing upside in both domains. Lingo has topped out at 89 FanDuel points to this stage.

Viktoriia Dudakova vs. Istela Nunes

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

I feel for Istela Nunes getting this matchup from UFC, but this line is moving her way, so maybe I shouldn't.

I still don't see whatever is causing that. Nunes has been out to lunch against grapplers like Viktoriia Dudakova to this point in UFC. She's ceded 7 of 12 takedown attempts and was knocked out in a striking match with Yazmin Jauregui in her last bout, but her striking is definitely an advantage in this matchup.

Dudakova was dominant during her trip to Dana White's Contender Series, scoring four of her eight takedown attempts and earning over 10 minutes of control. Maria Silva, her opponent that night, also had a successful effort on the show before that.

By all accounts, the 24-year-old Russian grappling prodigy is one to watch in UFC. The true fear for her in this spot is women's strawweight's massive upset rate, but even that study proved just a 35.7% win rate for underdogs.

Dudakova should have an easier time on the ground than her Contender Series appearance. I can't help but take her.

Betting Verdict: As this line keeps trending toward Nunes, Dudakova is showing value as a parlay piece. Her submission prop (+220) is also a target when Nunes was Ariane Carnelossi's only career submission, too.

DFS Verdict: I truly see Dudakova ($19) as an option at an MVP, but her grappling-heavy style isn't super desirable if that early finish doesn't come to fruition. Her ideal position is likely a flex spot.

Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Tucker Lutz

Men's Featherweight (145 pounds)

Melsik Baghdasaryan has everything to be a fan favorite. It's reflected in his odds to win here.

"The Gun" has a multi-level striking game that's already resulted in a highlight knockout, but Baghdasaryan's rise crashed via one slip against Josh Cuilbao. Culibao jumped on his back and submitted him in seconds, which was always a concern for the former kickboxing great.

However, Melsik's resumé is pretty thin. His wins have come over opponents 0-2 in UFC against everyone else. Tucker Lutz has dropped consecutive fights to Pat Sabatini and Daniel Pineda, but they have a combined 10 UFC wins between them. It's a different galaxy of competition here.

Lutz's +1.02 SSR is solid and intriguing given the superior competition and losses, and importantly, he's 3-0 in all other UFC-affiliated appearances facing less talented grapplers.

With none of that threat from Baghdasaryan, I find Lutz an intriguing underdog on this card. He'll be the confident one in grappling exchanges and hasn't been knocked out since his professional debut in 2015.

Betting Verdict: I've already pounced on Lutz at +140 in an attempt to get ahead of the moving number, but I see this fight as a near pick 'em. Baghdasaryan's resumé gets weaker the deeper you dive.

DFS Verdict: Baghdsaryan will surely be a popular choice, but Lutz hasn't been toppled as a striker to this point. I think he's the best low-salaried option at $13.

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Terrence McKinney

Lightweight (155 pounds)

This fight somewhat reminds me of Costa's with Lingo. Training camp and longevity are crucial factors here.

The dominant training room in MMA right now is the Serra-Longo Fight Team in New York, and Nazim Sadykhov is their newest lightweight pupil. Though unimpressive just looking at a -1 striking differential in his UFC debut, he gashed Evan Elder to the point of forcing a doctor's stoppage with his relentless pace.

I felt better about Terrance McKinney two weeks ago, but Ismael Bonfim was humiliated in his next fight after demolishing "T-Wrecks," so McKinney's resumé is another that dries up quickly. A seven-second knockout of Matt Frevola was his only win shorter than a -1000 favorite. While that's nice to have, it doesn't say much about his overall skill.

McKinney will bring a car crash for as long as he can, but his 43% striking defense shows greatly once the fight settles. Sadykhov's endurance -- a Serra-Longo signature trait -- showed in his debut. That's the most lopsided trait in this bout.

If "Black Wolf" can use a solid 56% striking defense to survive McKinney's initial flurry, it won't be a surprise as to why he was a -146 favorite in this one. Terrance was knocked out in both fights that left the first round.

Betting Verdict: Sadykhov's inside-the-distance prop (-105) isn't valued properly because McKinney is given such little equity in a decision here. It's my favorite way to back him.

DFS Verdict: McKinney's $15 is enticing, and there is a version of this fight he wins in a fantasy-relevant fashion, but I prefer the contrarian favorite with more mind to defense.

Francisco Prado vs. Ottman Azaitar

Lightweight (155 pounds)

With a statistical process, Ottman Azaitar is pretty hard to fade in his matchup. I still feel like it's the right call.

Azaitar's glowing +4.34 SSR was amassed in under five total minutes against Khama Worthy (2-3 UFC) and Teemu Packalen (1-3 UFC) -- neither of whom have won in UFC since the start of 2021. After a long suspension, Azaitar's return against Matt Frevola was a swift knockout in the other direction.

Francisco Prado drew the tough Jamie Mullarkey (4-4 UFC) on just a couple of weeks' notice to earn his shot into UFC, and the Aussie dominated in all phases of MMA. Prado is just 21 years old, so we haven't seen his true ceiling and won't for a while.

It's curious that Prado is favored here when Azaitar is the multi-time UFC winner. My hypothesis is that Azaitar, who has faced just one panic-induced takedown from Packalen, is a negative in the grappling department. We haven't seen that from him, and Prado nearly submitted Mullarkey with a decent attempt.

Prado has never been knocked out when Azaitar just was, so it's kind of adding up to the rising Argentinian is the more reliable side wherever this fight goes.

Betting Verdict: The only plausible reason Prado is favored here is based on grappling ability, so I might dive in on his submission prop (+460) or submission/decision two-way prop (+220) for better odds in a volatile fight.

DFS Verdict: Azaitar should be one of Saturday's most popular targets, but Prado also has finishing upside. All 11 of his wins have come via an early stoppage.

Norma Dumont vs. Chelsea Chandler

Women's Featherweight (145 pounds)

Dana White has confirmed his intention to abolish the women's division at 145 pounds, so this could be the last time we ever see Norma Dumont in a UFC octagon.

Dumont has been kept around as a potential challenger for the now-retired Amanda Nunes as one of two fighters on the roster who hasn't successfully made 135 pounds. In this non-existent division, her +1.38 SSR just doesn't hold much weight when her one win over a fighter still on the roster was this year's uninspiring tight decision over Karol Rosa where she was knocked down.

The other fighter who hasn't made 135 pounds yet is her opponent, Chelsea Chandler. However, Chandler's debut was a short-notice catchweight, and she's only fought regionally at featherweight. I'm not sure if she's got a future here, either.

Chandler blasted out Julija Stoliarenko (1-5 UFC) in a dominant first-round win, but she should have.

This is a low-level slog where over 2.5 rounds is -250. At this point, Chandler's explosive athleticism from her debut gets the benefit of the doubt from me when Dumont was soundly beaten by her best opponent to this stage, Macy Chiasson.

Betting Verdict: With the betting line on Dumont, the established UFC winner, not really moving despite obvious attention, Chandler's moneyline is an intriguing spot, but using legal tender on a perceived edge in this fight would be an interesting choice.

DFS Verdict: The line on over 2.5 rounds makes this a pretty non-consequential fight in DFS on the surface, but Chandler's pace -- if kept in the long run -- would be fantasy-relevant. At an underdog salary ($14), you could do worse.

JunYong Park vs. Albert Duraev

Middleweight (185 pounds)

I've been higher than consensus on both of these guys, so it's interesting to see them matched up.

JunYong Park's last fight was initially scheduled for his home country of South Korea, so he got a favorable matchup that he squashed. This continued a stretch of winning six of his last seven fights with equal proficiency when striking (+1.21 SSR) or wrestling (2.33 takedowns per 15 with 51% accuracy).

Importantly, his 70% takedown defense will be crucial against Albert Duraev. The Russian wrestler has signature traits of many before him, including an elite 63% striking defense to mind his manners working his way into the clinch. Curiously, Duraev's 27% takedown accuracy has actually been quite low thus far.

Park was ragdolled by Anthony Hernandez in his debut, but as "Fluffy" rises up the ranks, his lone recent setback was a striking brawl with Gregory Rodrigues, and there's a world where Park won that slobber knocker, too.

Personally, he's the appropriate favorite when Duraev hasn't been particularly potent offensively to this point. Park will be the much better striker.

Betting Verdict: I've got over 2.5 rounds here at -203 compared to the -130 price on FanDuel Sportsbook. Still preferring Park's side to win, "The Iron Turtle" by decision is +200 for those so inclined.

DFS Verdict: Duraev is a big name in a bargain bin without many, but he's shown zero urgency to score a finish and has topped out at 73.6 FanDuel points thus far. I'd use Park in a fight less desirable for DFS to me than most others.

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Bassil Hafez

Welterweight (170 pounds)

There is one lone point of drama in this fight.

This is the second cut to 170 pounds for Australia's Jack Della Maddalena in seven days. JDM made weight for UFC 290 in Las Vegas last week before his opponent was pulled due to a rare brain disease found in his physical. This is solely an effort by UFC to get Della Maddalena an appearance, his paycheck, and headed back down under.

This is no disrespect to Bassil Hafez, who has a chance to be a UFC winner down the road. He went to split decisions with Jeremiah Wells (4-0 UFC) and Anthony Ivy (0-2 UFC), so there's a measuring stick here. He might also be a better grappler than the Aussie with three submission wins to JDM's two.

However, Della Maddalena starched and finished Randy Brown and Ramazan Emeev, a duo with 16 combined UFC wins, in the first round. He was in line for a ranked test, and Hafez is very much an entry-level foe.

A second straight weight cut is not great for a human body, but Hafez will also be forced to make it on less than a week's notice, and that's not ideal, either. You have to trust Della Maddalena's talent, experience, and phenomenal peripherals at an elite level of competition.

Betting Verdict: There isn't much value to squeeze out of such a lopsided fight from this perspective, but Hafez hasn't been finished, so it's possible over 1.5 rounds (+160) could be worth a dart if he's just otherworldly tough.

DFS Verdict: This is the spot to support JDM ($23). His striking-centric style and pace are already a plus for fantasy, and this is a squash match to make this a worthwhile trip to the U.S.

Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds; Five-Round Main Event)

Holly Holm's career has taken an odd twist.

Holm was a world-champion kickboxer, scoring one of the most famous kicks in UFC history to dethrone Ronda Rousey in 2015. However, at 41 years old, she's turned into a wrestling maven. She has totaled nine takedowns in her past three fights, controlling Yana Santos for nearly 10 minutes during their bout in March.

That strategy would be a peculiar one against Mayra Bueno Silva. "Sheetara" is perhaps the division's best jiu-jitsu threat, tallying a card-best 1.5 submission attempts per 15 to this point. However, she prefers to work as a striker first, and her 54% striking accuracy and 58% striking defense -- against modest competition -- both tower over Holm.

It sounds insane, but I'm projecting Bueno Silva as the better striker. Holly has spent north of 10 minutes in the clinch in each of her past two fights, holding on -- seemingly for dear life -- with her newfound muscle mass.

The 31-year-old Bueno Silva is closer to her prime and has fight-ending upside in both domains. My model has her at 62.9% likely to win this fight when she is just a more accurate, more active version of Ketlen Vieira, who squeaked past Holm two fights ago.

Betting Verdict: Saving the best for last, Mayra is the most confident underdog pick from the model this weekend. Because of the hold, I'm showing no value on this fight's total, projecting it goes the distance 59.1% of the time (versus 63.2% implied).

DFS Verdict: Draft percentage could be all over the board with Holm's new style being poor for fantasy, but I'll happily load up on Sheetara's discounted salary ($16) when projecting her to win.