Now that we've got the bottom feeders out of the way, things are starting to perk up. These are the teams on the brink of contention and potentially some positive variance away from making a push, and it all starts with a surprising team in 20th.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Playoff Odds | World Series Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Atlanta Braves | 0.06 | 14.2% | 0.6% |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.09 | 15.3% | 0.4% |
| 18 | Los Angeles Angels | 0.15 | 15.5% | 0.8% |
| 17 | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.15 | 10.5% | 0.5% |
| 16 | Miami Marlins | 0.20 | 24.4% | 1.3% |
| 15 | New York Yankees | 0.23 | 14.9% | 1.0% |
| 14 | Detroit Tigers | 0.29 | 30.8% | 1.8% |
| 13 | Texas Rangers | 0.36 | 30.2% | 1.6% |
| 12 | Baltimore Orioles | 0.39 | 28.9% | 1.7% |
| 11 | New York Mets | 0.46 | 46.0% | 3.0% |
The Atlanta Braves did not have a fun 2016, finishing with a 68-93 record. They spent this offseason bolstering the rotation with the additions of Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia, and R.A. Dickey, and suddenly, this team looks like it could be due for a big turnaround.
Offensively, the improvements actually started showing up last year. The Braves were fourth in wRC+ in the second half after finishing the first half in dead last. With a full season of Dansby Swanson and the ever-Gucci Freddie Freeman, the optimism here seems warranted.
The World Series odds finally start to creep up once you get to the New York Mets at 11. They have plenty of questions in their rotation, though all of them revolve around health as opposed to talent. If they can get their core of Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz dealing like they did the first half of last year, the Mets could make good on the algorithms' endorsement.