Things are going to be a wee bit gross down here in the trenches. They'll get prettier as we go along, but you gotta start somewhere.
Here are the basic projections for each team in the bottom 10. If you want their win projections and division odds as well, you can check out the full power rankings on the site. You may not want to do so if you're a San Diego Padres fan.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Playoff Odds | World Series Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | San Diego Padres | -0.63 | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| 29 | Cincinnati Reds | -0.35 | 3.2% | 0.1% |
| 28 | Minnesota Twins | -0.31 | 4.5% | 0.1% |
| 27 | Philadelphia Phillies | -0.31 | 4.1% | 0.1% |
| 26 | Milwaukee Brewers | -0.20 | 5.3% | 0.1% |
| 25 | Chicago White Sox | -0.06 | 9.1% | 0.3% |
| 24 | Arizona Diamondbacks | -0.04 | 13.1% | 0.4% |
| 23 | Kansas City Royals | 0.03 | 14.4% | 0.7% |
| 22 | Colorado Rockies | 0.03 | 17.5% | 0.6% |
| 21 | Oakland Athletics | 0.04 | 9.3% | 0.4% |
The Padres aren't just last in nERD; they're last by a full 0.28 runs, equating to 45 runs worse than any other team over a full season. And with their starting rotation, it's hard to argue with that pessimism.
It makes sense that the Colorado Rockies would start this low on the totem pole after finishing last year with a 75-87 record, but they've got a chance to club their way out. They signed Ian Desmond in the offseason and added Greg Holland to tighten up the bullpen. numberFire's John Stolnis wrote in January that it's not crazy to view the Rockies as a threat, and with talented arms like Jon Gray and Tyler Anderson leading the rotation, it's easy to see a scenario in which they outperform this projection.
One team that is very much of note here is the Oakland Athletics. Bovada's World Series projections have them pegged among the bottom-six teams in baseball while numberFire's projections view them in a much more positive light. Their odds to win it all are still low at 0.4%, but nERD seems to think they'll be better than Vegas' view of them.