Current ADP: 47.77
While it was for different reasons, Ryan Braun and Longoria had been on the same production path over the past few seasons. After being a force earlier in his career, injuries and the cloud of performance-enhancing drugs led to Braun's numbers taking somewhat of a dip between 2013 to 2015.
He was the Braun of old in 2016, though, hitting .305/.365/.538 with 30 homers and 91 RBI's in 564 plate appearances. So he's got the past track record and recent performance to back up the above ADP, right?
Well, that is if you believe he can sustain his 28.8% homer-to-fly-ball rate (HR/FB%) from last year -- which was a career high -- despite hitting barely any fly balls.
Check out his progression in ground-ball rate, fly-ball rate and HR/FB% since his best overall power season in 2012, which produced 41 homers, 112 RBI's and a .595 slugging percentage.
| Year | GB% | FB% | HR/FB% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 43.6% | 38.1% | 22.8% |
| 2013 | 51.8% | 32.4% | 16.4% |
| 2014 | 47.1% | 33.0% | 13.8% |
| 2015 | 49.6% | 31.0% | 20.5% |
| 2016 | 55.7% | 25.1% | 28.8% |
Braun was the only 30-plus homer hitter from last year to reach that total with a GB% over 45% and a FB% under 30%. The only four players to hit ground balls more often than the Milwaukee Brewers' outfielder last year include Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer, Yunel Escobar and Christian Yelich.
There are good reasons to still feel confident in taking him, but at this point in the draft, there are better options to put your faith behind. However, our projections do tab him for 28 homers and 92 RBI's this season.