Current ADP: 59.20
Recent injury news aside, Carlos Carrasco is expected to be a key cog in the Cleveland Indians' starting rotation this year. Based on his results since 2014, he should continue delivering. After all, he's posted a 3.22 ERA, 3.00 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and 1.071 WHIP over 464 innings of work.
However, opposing hitters did find more success against him in 2016 than in the previous two seasons.
His average fastball velocity dipped to 92.8 miles per hour (MPH) last year (after averaging 95.3 MPH and 94.5 MPH in 2014 and 2015, respectively), while his changeup -- which he used 16.5% of the time last year -- went up a tick on average to 89.2 MPH (from 88.2). Plus, hitters aren't chasing as many pitches and are combining that with finding success more often.
| Year | Swing% | Contact% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 50.3% | 73.3% | 13.4% |
| 2015 | 51.7% | 72.9% | 14.0% |
| 2016 | 49.2% | 75.5% | 12.0% |
Carrasco was still able to get solid results, but he will also need to limit the homers, which spiked to 1.29 per nine innings pitched in 2016 (0.99 for his career).
Our projections are calling for a 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 187 strikeouts in 177 innings.