The New York Yankees and Washington Nationals have been switching places at the top for the last few weeks. The Nats were expected to be here, but not the Yankees, and they seem to be putting everything all together at the perfect time.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Seattle Mariners | 0.39 | 15-17 | 36.0% | +8 |
| 10 | St. Louis Cardinals | 0.39 | 17-14 | 68.2% | +6 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.43 | 16-18 | 11.2% | +1 |
| 8 | Oakland Athletics | 0.44 | 15-17 | 9.0% | -1 |
| 7 | Cleveland Indians | 0.48 | 17-14 | 82.8% | -1 |
| 6 | Boston Red Sox | 0.78 | 17-14 | 78.4% | +6 |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 1.22 | 17-15 | 15.1% | +4 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.25 | 18-14 | 84.3% | +1 |
| 3 | Houston Astros | 1.35 | 21-11 | 92.5% | 0 |
| 2 | Washington Nationals | 1.49 | 21-11 | 93.6% | -1 |
| 1 | New York Yankees | 2.19 | 21-9 | 79.5% | +1 |
Biggest Rise: Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have caught fire after a very slow start, which probably helps general manager Jerry Dipoto justify being active on the trade market once the time comes.
The rotation has suffered through a couple injuries to Felix Hernandez and James Paxton, but they received solid starts last week from Ariel Miranda, Yovani Gallardo and Chase De Jong en route to posting a rotation fWAR of 0.7, which landed them in the top 10.
And as good as Taylor Motter was in his absence, Jean Segura has been clutch at the top of the order since returning from the disabled list. Over the past week, he leads the team in wRC+ (243) and wOBA (.509) while slashing .481/.548/.630 in 30 plate appearances.
Biggest Drop: Oakland Athletics
There wasn't a whole lot of backward movement in this group, and since there's a three-way tie between the Oakland Athletics, Cleveland Indians and Washington Nationals for the largest drop, we went with the team that owns the lowest playoff odds at the moment.
The A's are the only squad here with a current playoff probability below 10.0%, but they've been hanging on in the top 10 for four weeks now. With a 5.25 ERA and 5.11 FIP, the starting rotation didn't add a bunch of value this week -- actually, they produced a 0.0 fWAR as a group.
Their offense has been playing pretty well, though, and Yonder Alonso has a lot to do with it. He leads Oakland in wRC+ (273), wOBA (.552) and fWAR (0.6) over the past week, and his nine homers have already matched his single-season career high, which happened in 2012 with the San Diego Padres. His 1.1 fWAR so far in 2017 tells us he's already been more valuable than the last two years combined (0.8 combined fWAR).