Once again, the Baltimore Orioles just keep winning despite our metrics seeing them as one of the worst teams in baseball. At this point, they hold one of the MLB's best records.
They're not the only overachieving team in this group, though.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Baltimore Orioles | -0.30 | 21-10 | 50.8% | +4 |
| 19 | Chicago White Sox | -0.25 | 15-15 | 11.0% | -2 |
| 18 | Milwaukee Brewers | -0.21 | 16-16 | 6.9% | -3 |
| 17 | Philadelphia Phillies | -0.13 | 13-17 | 3.8% | -4 |
| 16 | Colorado Rockies | -0.01 | 20-12 | 46.2% | +6 |
| 15 | Miami Marlins | 0.08 | 13-18 | 15.9% | +6 |
| 14 | Minnesota Twins | 0.11 | 15-14 | 8.9% | -6 |
| 13 | Chicago Cubs | 0.17 | 16-15 | 84.4% | -2 |
| 12 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.28 | 18-15 | 32.0% | -8 |
Biggest Rise: Colorado Rockies
We technically had a tie here between the Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies, so we decided to go with the more interesting situation of the two.
Despite having one of the worst strikeouts per nine inning rates (6.87) and homers allowed per nine inning rates (1.23) and a 4.39 FIP over the past week, Colorado's rotation produced 0.6 fWAR. And with a team wRC+ of just 89 during this same period, we can't just turn straight to the offense and crown them as the difference marker.
The Rockies have a perfect 9-0 record in one-run games so far this season, and the bullpen -- anchored by closer Greg Holland -- has been fantastic. Their 0.6 fWAR over the past week is tied for the fourth-best mark in the league, and they accomplished that with the third-best ERA (1.47), second-best FIP (1.85) and the second-highest ground-ball rate (58.1%).
Biggest Drop: Arizona Diamondbacks
The other NL West team that has gotten off to a surprisingly strong start is the Arizona Diamondbacks. For a while, they were duking it out with Colorado for first place, but a 2-4 week has allowed the Los Angeles Dodgers to leapfrog them in the standings.
Arizona has a tremendous offense with the likes of A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Owings and Brandon Drury (among others), but they just couldn't get it going this week. Their team wRC+ of 65 was better than just three other teams, and they were one of four to post a negative fWAR (-0.1).
This rough week of play can also been seen in how their playoff probability changed. Last week, they had a 41.6% chance of reaching October, but that's dropped nearly 10 percentage points to where it's currently at (32.0%).