We were a little short in the other groups because the St. Louis Cardinals, Oakland Athletics, and Cincinnati Reds all wanted to be in our top 10 and none were willing to compromise.
And after a quick one-week reign at the top, the Houston Astros have been knocked off for the time being with the Yankees reclaiming their crown.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | St. Louis Cardinals | 0.25 | 29-32 | 36.7% | 0 |
| 10 | Oakland Athletics | 0.25 | 27-36 | 5.0% | +1 |
| 10 | Cincinnati Reds | 0.25 | 29-34 | 8.0% | +3 |
| 9 | Miami Marlins | 0.30 | 27-35 | 8.7% | 0 |
| 8 | Seattle Mariners | 0.32 | 33-33 | 30.8% | +4 |
| 7 | Cleveland Indians | 0.44 | 31-29 | 77.6% | -1 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.60 | 34-32 | 22.3% | +1 |
| 5 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.01 | 39-26 | 74.1% | 0 |
| 4 | Washington Nationals | 1.11 | 38-26 | 98.5% | 0 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.47 | 39-25 | 96.2% | 0 |
| 2 | Houston Astros | 1.63 | 44-21 | 99.8% | -1 |
| 1 | New York Yankees | 2.21 | 38-23 | 91.9% | +1 |
Biggest Rise: Seattle Mariners
Back on May 30th, the Seattle Mariners were 20th in our power rankings, five games under .500 with just a 13.8% chance of reaching the postseason.
This goes to show you how quickly a hot week or two can change things.
No, they're probably not going to catch up in the American League West, but they're at .500 and only 1.5 games behind the second Wild Card spot. It's been a quick rise into our top 10, to say the least.
Despite not having Jean Segura at the top of their order, it was a boost to get Mitch Haniger back on offense, along with having James Paxton make his return to the rotation. They didn't necessarily have a great week judging by their collective performance on offense (103 wRC+ and .321 wOBA) or in the rotation (4.35 ERA, 4.97 FIP, and 0.3 fWAR), but things are looking a lot better than they were a couple weeks ago.
Biggest Drop: Houston Astros
Sure, dropping from the top spot to the second spot over a period of one week isn't all that bad. And for the Astros, it's not like they're in any sort of trouble -- after all, they're 44-21, easily have the best record in baseball, are a virtual lock for October, according to our metrics, and are sitting on a 12-game lead in the American League West.
However, the past week hasn't been kind to them.
Not only have they gone 2-5 over their last 7 games, but they've also gotten bit with the injury bug in the starting rotation. If depth was a question, then they're about to get tested. Collin McHugh and Charlie Morton were already on the disabled list, but just this past week, both Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers joined them.
So, four out of their five normal starting hurlers are on the shelf, leaving Mike Fiers as the lone man standing right now. This is unfortunate, but every team would still be envious of Houston's current situation. And who knows, maybe this will motivate them toward acquiring another starter prior to the non-waiver trade deadline.