The Cubs are surprisingly continuing to battle inconsistency after a loss to the New York Mets, who clearly have some work of their own to do if they want to have a shot at reaching October for the third consecutive season. When it comes to the most notable rises and dips amongst this group, though, both squads we're about to highlight are right on the cusp of the top 10.
Although, they're going in opposite directions at the moment.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | New York Mets | -0.18 | 29-33 | 6.6% | +3 |
| 19 | Los Angeles Angels | -0.16 | 33-34 | 6.8% | -3 |
| 18 | Chicago White Sox | -0.12 | 27-35 | 4.6% | +2 |
| 17 | Milwaukee Brewers | -0.04 | 33-31 | 19.0% | -2 |
| 16 | Chicago Cubs | 0.00 | 31-32 | 69.6% | -2 |
| 15 | Toronto Blue Jays | 0.07 | 31-32 | 23.6% | +2 |
| 14 | Colorado Rockies | 0.10 | 41-25 | 74.7% | +5 |
| 13 | Boston Red Sox | 0.23 | 35-28 | 73.8% | -5 |
Biggest Rise: Colorado Rockies
As Jim Sannes and I discussed on this week's edition of the Heat Check podcast, the Colorado Rockies are completely flipping the narrative with regard to the performance of their roster. We've always focused on how Colorado's offense is one of the best in baseball, while their pitching is among the worst. Not so much this year, and that trend continued over the past week.
The Rockies' team wRC+ of 106 since last week was just slightly above average, but they had a solid week because the pitching staff posted a cumulative ERA of 3.10 despite a 4.57 FIP. While they struggled getting strikeouts and limiting walks (7.82 strikeouts per nine and 3.25 walks allowed per nine), they made up for it in ground-ball rate (52.3%).
This gets even more impressive when we remember that Jon Gray, Chad Bettis, and Tyler Anderson are all on the disabled list, and Tyler Chatwood is the only non-rookie currently holding down a spot in the rotation.
Biggest Drop: Boston Red Sox
Despite a 5.29 team ERA over the past week (although a 4.16 FIP shows they encountered a bit of tough luck), the Boston Red Sox didn't watch their record get worse, but as the New York Yankees go on another tear, they're a little further off the pace in the division than they were a few days ago.
David Price is back in the mix, which is good news, but his first three starts look a lot like last year -- one great one and two not-so-great ones. Good thing they have Chris Sale, right?
They should also be thankful for having Craig Kimbrel back to his dominant self in the ninth inning. Through 28.2 innings pitched this year, he's posted a ridiculous 0.94 ERA that's supported by a 0.28 FIP and an even more ridiculous 17.58 strikeouts per nine innings. It's been more of the same over the past week, too -- he's recorded a total of 10 outs (3.1 innings), and he's piled up 8 strikeouts during that time. Dude's pretty good.