Our metrics have given the Philadelphia Phillies no chance of reaching the playoffs since May 30th, so it can't get any worse than that, right? Wrong -- for the first time this season, they've dropped to last place in our power rankings, and (maybe only temporarily) getting the Kansas City Royals off the hook.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Philadelphia Phillies | -1.28 | 21-41 | 0.0% | -1 |
| 29 | Kansas City Royals | -1.02 | 28-34 | 2.0% | +1 |
| 28 | Baltimore Orioles | -1.01 | 31-31 | 13.7% | -4 |
| 27 | San Diego Padres | -0.86 | 25-40 | 0.0% | +1 |
| 26 | San Francisco Giants | -0.84 | 26-39 | 1.4% | +1 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Pirates | -0.60 | 29-35 | 3.9% | 0 |
| 24 | Texas Rangers | -0.50 | 31-32 | 4.2% | +2 |
| 23 | Atlanta Braves | -0.32 | 28-35 | 2.6% | -1 |
| 22 | Detroit Tigers | -0.25 | 30-32 | 23.4% | -1 |
| 21 | Minnesota Twins | -0.23 | 32-28 | 20.6% | -4 |
Biggest Rise: Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers have been on a bit of a roller coaster ride the last few weeks. First it was a quick rise, followed by a quick drop, and now they're back on the rise. Unfortunately, they still have a lot of work to do in the American League Wild Card race, which is why their current odds of getting back to the playoffs aren't too high.
While their team FIP (4.68) and xFIP (4.34) don't look all that awesome from the past week, they still managed to log a 2.89 ERA. Despite a rough start from Dillon Gee, Texas received terrific performances from Yu Darvish, Andrew Cashner (who continues to grossly outperform his peripherals), and Austin Bibens-Dirkx (who outlasted Max Scherzer).
The offense was just about average as a group, but Shin-Soo Choo led the way with a 211 wRC+ and .490 wOBA over his last 27 plate appearances. What's even more impressive, though, is that he produced a 25.9% walk rate (which is amazing all by itself) with a 3.7% strikeout rate.
Biggest Drop: Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins are still hanging around at the top of the American League Central, but they're not making it easy on themselves. The past week in particular has been pretty rough, as their team wRC+ (78) along with their ERA (5.80) and FIP (4.17) haven't been the greatest. Ervin Santana is doing his best to carry the pitching staff after a complete-game shutout this week, his third such performance of the season.
Brian Dozier (218 wRC+ and .496 wOBA over his past 32 plate appearances) has come alive, which is the complete opposite of what Miguel Sano has done in his last 29 plate appearances (48 wRC+, .247 wOBA). However, we need to take a minute to talk about his batted-ball profile.
Despite his recent tough luck, Sano has produced a 42.1% fly-ball rate to go along with a 47.4% hard-hit rate and 5.3% soft-hit rate, which is right in line with what he's done all year (45.4%, 51.3%, and 6.7%, respectively). Basically, his quality of contact numbers are just disgusting, and I can't stop staring at them.