Gio Gonzalez is 8-4 with a 2.66 ERA, the fourth-best ERA among qualified starters.
You don't need me to tell you he's not the fourth-best pitcher in baseball, but the difference in Gonzalez's 2.66 ERA and 4.41 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is nearly 2 full runs.
Gonzalez is getting whiffs like he usually does with a 23.3% strikeout rate and 9.4% swinging-strike rate, but he's excelling like never before because of some pretty great luck. His .256 BABIP allowed is the ninth-lowest mark among qualified starters, and his 85.7% strand rate is the second-best clip in the game.
Both of those numbers are significantly better than his career averages. In fact, while his ERA is a career-best mark, he's doing it despite the fact he's performing poorly just about everywhere else, including his batted-ball stats.
| Year | Hard-Hit Rate | Fly-Ball Rate | BABIP | Strand Rate | SIERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career Average | 28.0% | 32.8% | .294 | 73.6% | 3.87 |
| 2017 | 31.6% | 35.4% | .254 | 85.7% | 4.41 |
Gonzalez needs the good fortune on balls in play and strand rate because his 10.2% walk rate is his worst mark since 2011. When the BABIP and strand rate normalize, Gonzalez -- a guy who is currently a top-10 starting pitcher by ESPN's Player Rater -- may see his fantasy stock plummet.