In 295 plate appearances this season, Cincinnati Reds shortstop Zack Cozart has already produced more value, according to FanGraphs' WAR, than he did in 508 plate appearances last season.
Even though he gets a lot of his real-life value from defense, he's been a flat-out beast with the lumber, racking up a .388 wOBA and 12.2% walk rate, both of which are career-best marks by canyon-esque margins.
This being a sell-high piece is a major spoiler, but now is the time we get to why Cozart is going to struggle to maintain this pace.
| Year | Hard-Hit Rate | Fly-Ball Rate | wOBA | Triple-Slash Line | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 31.2% | 39.9% | .312 | .252/.308/.425 | .274 |
| 2017 | 30.3% | 38.5% | .388 | .306/.390/.529 | .347 |
Cozart's batted-ball numbers are worse than what he put up a year ago, but his bottom-line results look so much better because of his .347 BABIP. Coming into this season, his career-best BABIP was .285, and his current career average is .281.
His BABIP surge is almost entire fueled by luck as his average exit velocity of 85.2 miles per hour is a well-below-average mark among hitters with at least 100 batted-ball events.
Cozart's first-half surge has made him the 12th-best fantasy shortstop, per ESPN's Player Rater. Even with his unsustainable batted-ball luck, he's barely been a startable player in standard, 12-team leagues. When his fortune turns, he's going to slip back into the abyss at the position, so get something valuable for him while you can.